Q+A-What is behind Thailand's mysterious insurgency?
(For a related feature, click [IDnBKK154617] )
By Martin Petty
BANGKOK, July 3 (Reuters) - Five years after a violent rebellion erupted in Thailand's southern Muslim provinces, the conflict remains shrouded in mystery.
No credible group has claimed responsibility for the near-daily attacks or made their demands public.
The death toll from the unrest in Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat provinces is close to 3,500, with neither a military victory nor a political solution looking likely.
WHO IS BEHIND THE VIOLENCE?
No group has publicly come forward, but analysts, academics and the military believe the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) Coordinate is the main player.
The group is said to be a military offshoot of the Patani Malay National Revolutionary Front, a political movement established in the 1960s to seek independence, or at least autonomy, for the region's ethnic Malay Muslims.
A low-level insurgency in the 1970s and early 1980s, fought mainly in the jungle, ended with an amnesty for fighters. The violence resurfaced in 2004.
Its leaders are unknown. The government believes they may be living in Malaysia or in Europe. The authorities have long suspected prominent local politicians, religious leaders and Islamic teachers of involvement.
WHERE DOES THE SEPARATIST SENTIMENT COME FROM?
The region was once an independent Malay Muslim sultanate called Patani. Thailand, then Siam, first invaded in 1786 and, according to historians, forced many people into slavery.
Patani was annexed by Siam in 1909 as part of a treaty with Britain and successive governments sought to assimilate the population into the Thai Buddhist mainstream, with bans on Islamic schools and attire and the outlawing of the Malay dialect, Muslim names and the teaching of local history.
Uprisings were aggressively handled by the authorities and pro-independence figures disappeared or were killed. Deep resentment still exists and many Muslims say Thailand, and its people, have long refused to recognise their identity.
WHAT ARE THE REBELS' CAPABILITIES?
Their attacks are brutal but simple, ranging from drive-by shootings and beheadings to arson and small-scale bombings.
But beneath the surface, experts say, the reclusive rebels have a complex multi-cell structure of recruitment, combat and control, with the leadership known only to a few members.
The military estimates the movement has 3,000 operatives, among them guerrilla fighters, informants and spies, who spread fear and intimidation among Muslim villagers to avoid detection and protect the group's identity.
"The insurgency is highly organised," said Anthony Davis, a security analyst for Jane's Information Group. "The secrecy is very effective, and militarily they've stuck with what they know best. They could keep this campaign going indefinitely."
HOW IS THE GOVERNMENT TACKLING THE VIOLENCE?
"Iron fist" military action, "hearts and minds" campaigns and development aid have all failed.
The military's intelligence capabilities are basic at best, with few locals willing to become informants or testify because of fear of reprisal.
Like his predecessors, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has publicly ruled out negotiation. He says the government is open to some form of decentralised administration for the deep south, but he seems reluctant to pursue it.
"Bangkok needs to reduce its reliance on a military approach, reach out to the Muslim elite and make the people feel valued, not isolated or marginalised," said Rohan Gunaratna, a security analyst and author of a book on the Thai insurgency.
"It will be a prolonged and protracted conflict if Thailand refuses to establish collaborative external relationships."
ARE OUTSIDE GROUPS INVOLVED?
Despite reports of links to radical Islamist groups or a wider global jihadi movement, there is no evidence to suggest the conflict is anything more than a localised, ethno-nationalist struggle by the region's Malay Muslim majority.
However, analysts believe aggressive crackdowns and any extrajudicial killings by security forces, and the perceived oppression of Muslims could attract involvement by Islamic militant networks such as al Qaeda, leading to an escalation.
WILL THE VIOLENCE SPREAD?
The eruption of hostilities in 2004 led to fears that the militants would attack Western targets in Bangkok or holiday hotspots such as Phuket or Pattaya. It has never happened.
"Expanding their campaign to other regions is not the target of this movement," said Srisompob Jitpiromsri, a Pattani-based political scientist. "It's very specific. They are attacking the Thai state from inside the three provinces and want to protect the identity of ethnic Malay Muslims".
Others, however, do not rule out an escalation beyond the deep south if the insurgents fail to make progress.
IS A POLITICAL SOLUTION POSSIBLE?
Officially, no dialogue has ever taken place between the government and the separatists, but several analysts and academics with sources inside the national security apparatus have told Reuters that meetings between Thai representatives and rebels have taken place, with no deal struck.
Political unrest in Bangkok and changes in government have prevented meaningful dialogue, while a deep distrust of Thai state officials, and their uncompromising rhetoric, leaves little hope of a political solution at present.
(Editing by Megan Goldin)
By Martin Petty
BANGKOK, July 3 (Reuters) - Five years after a violent rebellion erupted in Thailand's southern Muslim provinces, the conflict remains shrouded in mystery.
No credible group has claimed responsibility for the near-daily attacks or made their demands public.
The death toll from the unrest in Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat provinces is close to 3,500, with neither a military victory nor a political solution looking likely.
WHO IS BEHIND THE VIOLENCE?
No group has publicly come forward, but analysts, academics and the military believe the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) Coordinate is the main player.
The group is said to be a military offshoot of the Patani Malay National Revolutionary Front, a political movement established in the 1960s to seek independence, or at least autonomy, for the region's ethnic Malay Muslims.
A low-level insurgency in the 1970s and early 1980s, fought mainly in the jungle, ended with an amnesty for fighters. The violence resurfaced in 2004.
Its leaders are unknown. The government believes they may be living in Malaysia or in Europe. The authorities have long suspected prominent local politicians, religious leaders and Islamic teachers of involvement.
WHERE DOES THE SEPARATIST SENTIMENT COME FROM?
The region was once an independent Malay Muslim sultanate called Patani. Thailand, then Siam, first invaded in 1786 and, according to historians, forced many people into slavery.
Patani was annexed by Siam in 1909 as part of a treaty with Britain and successive governments sought to assimilate the population into the Thai Buddhist mainstream, with bans on Islamic schools and attire and the outlawing of the Malay dialect, Muslim names and the teaching of local history.
Uprisings were aggressively handled by the authorities and pro-independence figures disappeared or were killed. Deep resentment still exists and many Muslims say Thailand, and its people, have long refused to recognise their identity.
WHAT ARE THE REBELS' CAPABILITIES?
Their attacks are brutal but simple, ranging from drive-by shootings and beheadings to arson and small-scale bombings.
But beneath the surface, experts say, the reclusive rebels have a complex multi-cell structure of recruitment, combat and control, with the leadership known only to a few members.
The military estimates the movement has 3,000 operatives, among them guerrilla fighters, informants and spies, who spread fear and intimidation among Muslim villagers to avoid detection and protect the group's identity.
"The insurgency is highly organised," said Anthony Davis, a security analyst for Jane's Information Group. "The secrecy is very effective, and militarily they've stuck with what they know best. They could keep this campaign going indefinitely."
HOW IS THE GOVERNMENT TACKLING THE VIOLENCE?
"Iron fist" military action, "hearts and minds" campaigns and development aid have all failed.
The military's intelligence capabilities are basic at best, with few locals willing to become informants or testify because of fear of reprisal.
Like his predecessors, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has publicly ruled out negotiation. He says the government is open to some form of decentralised administration for the deep south, but he seems reluctant to pursue it.
"Bangkok needs to reduce its reliance on a military approach, reach out to the Muslim elite and make the people feel valued, not isolated or marginalised," said Rohan Gunaratna, a security analyst and author of a book on the Thai insurgency.
"It will be a prolonged and protracted conflict if Thailand refuses to establish collaborative external relationships."
ARE OUTSIDE GROUPS INVOLVED?
Despite reports of links to radical Islamist groups or a wider global jihadi movement, there is no evidence to suggest the conflict is anything more than a localised, ethno-nationalist struggle by the region's Malay Muslim majority.
However, analysts believe aggressive crackdowns and any extrajudicial killings by security forces, and the perceived oppression of Muslims could attract involvement by Islamic militant networks such as al Qaeda, leading to an escalation.
WILL THE VIOLENCE SPREAD?
The eruption of hostilities in 2004 led to fears that the militants would attack Western targets in Bangkok or holiday hotspots such as Phuket or Pattaya. It has never happened.
"Expanding their campaign to other regions is not the target of this movement," said Srisompob Jitpiromsri, a Pattani-based political scientist. "It's very specific. They are attacking the Thai state from inside the three provinces and want to protect the identity of ethnic Malay Muslims".
Others, however, do not rule out an escalation beyond the deep south if the insurgents fail to make progress.
IS A POLITICAL SOLUTION POSSIBLE?
Officially, no dialogue has ever taken place between the government and the separatists, but several analysts and academics with sources inside the national security apparatus have told Reuters that meetings between Thai representatives and rebels have taken place, with no deal struck.
Political unrest in Bangkok and changes in government have prevented meaningful dialogue, while a deep distrust of Thai state officials, and their uncompromising rhetoric, leaves little hope of a political solution at present.
(Editing by Megan Goldin)
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