ANALYSIS-Turkey deals blow to PKK, faces non-military battle

By Daren Butler

ISTANBUL, May 13 (Reuters) - Turkish military strikes in the mountains of northern Iraq appear to have dealt a powerful psychological blow to Kurdish separatists and disrupted their ability to stage attacks on Turkish soil.

But their successes will not suffice to crush the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) unless combined with a non-military fight to overcome political and cultural problems that have fostered insurgency in Turkey's impoverished southeast, analysts said.

Turkish warplanes have bombarded PKK targets in northern Iraq in waves of attacks since February when the army launched a major ground cross-border incursion -- signalling a fresh phase in a conflict which has claimed some 40,000 lives since 1984.

The European Union and the United States are keen for NATO-member Turkey, which they say is defending itself against a terrorist organisation, to keep its attacks in northern Iraq limited to avoid destabilising Iraq and the wider region.

U.S. intelligence has helped facilitate these strikes, enabling the Turkish army to pinpoint PKK rebels and their hideouts. The General Staff said one air raid in May killed more than 150 rebels, although these figures could not be confirmed.

"The Turkish armed forces have perhaps for the first time psychological supremacy over the PKK, because if you as an enemy know you are always under scrutiny you are not going to feel comfort in the area where you are located," said Turkish military affairs analyst Lale Sariibrahimoglu.

The PKK has consistently denied reports of heavy casualties or damage to their bases.

Amid the psychological warfare, recent media reports have claimed senior militants have been captured or killed. Notably last week there was speculation, which proved unfounded, that top PKK commander Murat Karayilan had been killed in a raid.

Despite damage inflicted by army attacks and reports of disarray in the PKK, it was unclear how long-lasting the damage would be to rebel operations; uncertain also was how it would affect efforts to attract more fighters from among disaffected youths in a region beset by heavy unemployment and, in many parts, lacking well developed infrastructure.

"I am not sure it will affect the PKK's ability to recruit. But it will ratchet up the pressure on the people already in the organisation. It forces them onto the defensive," said Gareth Jenkins, an Istanbul-based expert on Turkish security issues.



NON-MILITARY OFFENSIVE

Several thousand PKK fighters are still believed to be based in northern Iraq, from where they stage attacks on mainly military targets in southeast Turkey. Luring them down from the mountains is likely to require more than sporadic air raids.

At the weekend the General Staff said most rebels in a group of 200 had put down their weapons and scattered in residential areas of northern Iraq -- a statement which Turkish political commentator Murat Yetkin said could be interpreted as pointing to a quiet "way out" for rank-and-file PKK members.

Turkish authorities have also reported surrenders of fighters in the southeast of the country and called on those still fighting to surrender.

"One should not expect a rapid and mass response to such a call. Its success... would also be dependent on taking the economic, social and psychological steps mentioned by (Prime Minister Tayyip) Erdogan and (General Staff chief Yasar) Buyukainit," Yetkin said in liberal Radikal newspaper.

Erdogan announced last week his government would spend 2.3 billion lira ($1.8 billion) in 2008 to develop the southeast region, including dam and irrigation projects, as part of a plan to drain support for the guerrillas.

Similar government pledges in the past have failed to ease economic hardship in the region and analysts said moves also needed to be made in the political and cultural spheres, such as lifting restrictions on Kurdish language education.



ABILITY TO STAGE ATTACKS

Turkish army attacks on the PKK inside and outside Turkey have in the past two decades been met by revenge attacks, particularly aimed at civilian rather than military targets.

Dozens of soldiers have been killed in the offensive against the PKK in the southeast region and across in northern Iraq over the past few months; but the relatively low level of current PKK activity has encouraged the view that its ability to operate has been severely hampered.

"The military operations have really affected negatively the PKK's ability to stage big strikes in big cities," said Sariibrahimoglu.

The last major urban bombing attributed to the guerrillas killed five students outside a private school in the southeastern city of Diyarbakir in January.

But there have been media reports this year of the military uncovering stockpiles of ammonium nitrate used in explosive devices, fuelling speculation that the militants are considering using larger vehicle bombs.

"The concern is that out of desperation they will literally make a big bang just to prove they are still capable. Although of course this is a very risky strategy because if they cause too many civilian casualties they could damage their own standing within their own constituency," Jenkins said. (Editing by Ralph Boulton)