ANALYSIS-Saudi fears Iraq chaos is strengthening Iran
By Andrew Hammond
RIYADH, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia fears the Iraq conflict has sapped America's ability to guarantee Gulf Arab security and breathed new life into the threat from Iran, according to analysts.
The war toppled Saddam Hussein, once seen by Washington and its Sunni Arab allies as a bulwark against the influence of Shi'ite Iran, and replaced his minority Sunni Muslim regime with a coalition dominated by parties from Iraq's Shi'ite majority.
The Iraqi Shi'ites, some allied to Tehran, have consolidated their power, and fighting between Sunni insurgents and Shi'ite paramilitaries has driven the country to the brink of civil war.
Saudi Arabia fears the violence spreading over its own borders. Its own Shi'ite minority is concentrated in the oil-rich eastern region near Iran and Iraq.
Saudi policy wants to ensure that the U.S. security umbrella in the region remains in place to protect the world's biggest oil exporter from radical and envious neighbours, Western diplomats in Riyadh said.
"Even more so now because of Iraq -- there is increased Iranian influence in the region," one said.
In addition to 134,000 troops in Iraq, the United States maintains a significant military presence in Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, which houses the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet.
"The bottom line is that the Saudis are more loudly sending signals that they do not want the U.S. to retreat in haste" from Iraq, said analyst Neil Partrick of the Economic Intelligence Unit.
The United States accuses Iran of planning a covert nuclear weapons programme. Iran denies this.
"The disinclination to ... 'give' Iraq to Iran could yet see a direct U.S.-Iranian confrontation as events in Iraq bring them into direct fighting," Partrick said.
SAUDI DEBATE
In December the Saudi ambassador to the United States Prince Turki al-Faisal resigned without explanation. That, and comments by a Saudi security adviser suggesting Riyadh could send troops to protect Sunnis in Iraq and lower world oil prices to pressure Iran, have spurred talk of sharp policy disputes within the royal family.
Saudi officials have denied they would use oil as a tool of pressure, but analysts point out that Gulf Arab countries resisted Iraqi calls to cut production and raise prices when Iraq was in a perilous state after the 1980-88 war with Iran.
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visited Riyadh last week and obtained Saudi backing for the U.S. plan to send more troops to pacify Iraq this year, though Saudi officials expressed reservations over the intentions of Iraq's Shi'ite leadership.
"After the visit and Saudi approval of the U.S. plan, the king (Abdullah) has said 'stop' (the arguments)," said Mustafa Alani, an Iraqi analyst visiting Riyadh.
"The Saudis were worried by the Baker-Hamilton report that the Americans would negotiate with Iran. But they got assurances on Iraq, (Saudi) security and containment of Iran," he said.
He was referring to a recommendation by a bipartisan commission of elder statesmen led by former secretary of state James Baker that the U.S. administration should find a way to exit gracefully from Iraq and engage Tehran on how to ensure stability there.
SAUDI TROOPS IN IRAQ?
Western diplomats in Riyadh do not take seriously the idea of Saudi troops in Iraq, partly because it would break with a pattern of using money to get proxies to fight instead.
"Criticising Iran for meddling in Iraqi affairs is one thing, and playing an active role inside Iraq to counteract this supposed Iranian influence is something else," said Fahad Nazer, a Washington-based Saudi analyst.
Gulf Arab states have said they will pursue their own nuclear energy plans, in an apparent sign to Washington that an arms race will ensue if Iran is not checked.
But Riyadh and Tehran have meanwhile stepped up diplomatic contacts.
Ali Larijani, Iran's top nuclear negotiator, held talks in Riyadh last week with King Abdullah in what Saudi sources have said was an attempt to seek Saudi help with Washington and to reassure Saudi Arabia over the nuclear programme.
A Saudi envoy visited Tehran this week for talks which Saudi media said were an effort to put an end to civil strife in Lebanon -- where both Tehran and Riyadh are backing rival groups in a power struggle.
RIYADH, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia fears the Iraq conflict has sapped America's ability to guarantee Gulf Arab security and breathed new life into the threat from Iran, according to analysts.
The war toppled Saddam Hussein, once seen by Washington and its Sunni Arab allies as a bulwark against the influence of Shi'ite Iran, and replaced his minority Sunni Muslim regime with a coalition dominated by parties from Iraq's Shi'ite majority.
The Iraqi Shi'ites, some allied to Tehran, have consolidated their power, and fighting between Sunni insurgents and Shi'ite paramilitaries has driven the country to the brink of civil war.
Saudi Arabia fears the violence spreading over its own borders. Its own Shi'ite minority is concentrated in the oil-rich eastern region near Iran and Iraq.
Saudi policy wants to ensure that the U.S. security umbrella in the region remains in place to protect the world's biggest oil exporter from radical and envious neighbours, Western diplomats in Riyadh said.
"Even more so now because of Iraq -- there is increased Iranian influence in the region," one said.
In addition to 134,000 troops in Iraq, the United States maintains a significant military presence in Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, which houses the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet.
"The bottom line is that the Saudis are more loudly sending signals that they do not want the U.S. to retreat in haste" from Iraq, said analyst Neil Partrick of the Economic Intelligence Unit.
The United States accuses Iran of planning a covert nuclear weapons programme. Iran denies this.
"The disinclination to ... 'give' Iraq to Iran could yet see a direct U.S.-Iranian confrontation as events in Iraq bring them into direct fighting," Partrick said.
SAUDI DEBATE
In December the Saudi ambassador to the United States Prince Turki al-Faisal resigned without explanation. That, and comments by a Saudi security adviser suggesting Riyadh could send troops to protect Sunnis in Iraq and lower world oil prices to pressure Iran, have spurred talk of sharp policy disputes within the royal family.
Saudi officials have denied they would use oil as a tool of pressure, but analysts point out that Gulf Arab countries resisted Iraqi calls to cut production and raise prices when Iraq was in a perilous state after the 1980-88 war with Iran.
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visited Riyadh last week and obtained Saudi backing for the U.S. plan to send more troops to pacify Iraq this year, though Saudi officials expressed reservations over the intentions of Iraq's Shi'ite leadership.
"After the visit and Saudi approval of the U.S. plan, the king (Abdullah) has said 'stop' (the arguments)," said Mustafa Alani, an Iraqi analyst visiting Riyadh.
"The Saudis were worried by the Baker-Hamilton report that the Americans would negotiate with Iran. But they got assurances on Iraq, (Saudi) security and containment of Iran," he said.
He was referring to a recommendation by a bipartisan commission of elder statesmen led by former secretary of state James Baker that the U.S. administration should find a way to exit gracefully from Iraq and engage Tehran on how to ensure stability there.
SAUDI TROOPS IN IRAQ?
Western diplomats in Riyadh do not take seriously the idea of Saudi troops in Iraq, partly because it would break with a pattern of using money to get proxies to fight instead.
"Criticising Iran for meddling in Iraqi affairs is one thing, and playing an active role inside Iraq to counteract this supposed Iranian influence is something else," said Fahad Nazer, a Washington-based Saudi analyst.
Gulf Arab states have said they will pursue their own nuclear energy plans, in an apparent sign to Washington that an arms race will ensue if Iran is not checked.
But Riyadh and Tehran have meanwhile stepped up diplomatic contacts.
Ali Larijani, Iran's top nuclear negotiator, held talks in Riyadh last week with King Abdullah in what Saudi sources have said was an attempt to seek Saudi help with Washington and to reassure Saudi Arabia over the nuclear programme.
A Saudi envoy visited Tehran this week for talks which Saudi media said were an effort to put an end to civil strife in Lebanon -- where both Tehran and Riyadh are backing rival groups in a power struggle.
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