SCENARIOS-Possible outcomes of Greek Oct. 4 election
By Ingrid Melander
ATHENS, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Greeks vote in a national election on Sunday with the opposition socialists leading in polls but not guaranteed to gather enough support to form a government outright.
With no clear winner, Greece could be plunged into weeks of political limbo at a time of economic crisis.
Here are scenarios of how the situation could develop and the political and financial risks at stake:
ONE PARTY WINS OUTRIGHT
This is favoured by most Greeks and financial markets.
Polls show the socialist PASOK party has gained support since the vote was announced on Sept. 2, bringing it closer to gaining an outright majority. In the last polls published on Sept. 18, it was seen leading by about 6 percentage points.
However pollsters stress it is hard to predict how votes translate in seats because of Greece's complex electoral system and say PASOK would need well above 40 percent of the vote to gain a comfortable parliamentary majority.
NO CLEAR WINNER
This scenario is still possible if PASOK does not gain enough ground. It would mean a repeat election or, much less likely, a coalition government could be formed.
Analysts say an inconclusive vote would increase uncertainty in debt-ridden Greece, which narrowly escaped recession this summer and needs a strong government to tackle long-delayed reforms.
Greek shares .ATG fell after the election was announced on fears there would be no clear election winner. For the same reason, premium investors' demand for 10-year Greek bonds rather than benchmark German Bunds rose to a six-week high at the time.
ANOTHER ELECTION
This is the most likely outcome if PASOK wins but cannot govern on its own. The new election would be held under a new electoral law that gives the winning party an increased first-party bonus, enabling it to win an absolute majority of seats more easily. This would extend the electoral period by at least 30 days.
COALITION UNLIKELY
PASOK is open to cooperation with other leftist parties but the communist KKE and the Left Coalition have ruled this out.
The far-right LAOS parties has repeatedly offered its support to New Democracy, but its leader told Reuters this week he believed the conservatives had no chance of winning.
New Democracy has so far turned down its support but may change its mind if many of its disgruntled voters turn to LAOS.
If none of the three leading parties can form a coalition, the president dissolves parliament, calls new elections and asks a senior court official to form a caretaker government until new elections are held.
BLOCKING TACTICS?
The loser could trigger another parliamentary election in March by blocking the election of the president. Analysts also see this as unlikely as no party would gain from dragging Greece through a prolonged crisis. Karamanlis has ruled out using this tactic.
ATHENS, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Greeks vote in a national election on Sunday with the opposition socialists leading in polls but not guaranteed to gather enough support to form a government outright.
With no clear winner, Greece could be plunged into weeks of political limbo at a time of economic crisis.
Here are scenarios of how the situation could develop and the political and financial risks at stake:
ONE PARTY WINS OUTRIGHT
This is favoured by most Greeks and financial markets.
Polls show the socialist PASOK party has gained support since the vote was announced on Sept. 2, bringing it closer to gaining an outright majority. In the last polls published on Sept. 18, it was seen leading by about 6 percentage points.
However pollsters stress it is hard to predict how votes translate in seats because of Greece's complex electoral system and say PASOK would need well above 40 percent of the vote to gain a comfortable parliamentary majority.
NO CLEAR WINNER
This scenario is still possible if PASOK does not gain enough ground. It would mean a repeat election or, much less likely, a coalition government could be formed.
Analysts say an inconclusive vote would increase uncertainty in debt-ridden Greece, which narrowly escaped recession this summer and needs a strong government to tackle long-delayed reforms.
Greek shares .ATG fell after the election was announced on fears there would be no clear election winner. For the same reason, premium investors' demand for 10-year Greek bonds rather than benchmark German Bunds rose to a six-week high at the time.
ANOTHER ELECTION
This is the most likely outcome if PASOK wins but cannot govern on its own. The new election would be held under a new electoral law that gives the winning party an increased first-party bonus, enabling it to win an absolute majority of seats more easily. This would extend the electoral period by at least 30 days.
COALITION UNLIKELY
PASOK is open to cooperation with other leftist parties but the communist KKE and the Left Coalition have ruled this out.
The far-right LAOS parties has repeatedly offered its support to New Democracy, but its leader told Reuters this week he believed the conservatives had no chance of winning.
New Democracy has so far turned down its support but may change its mind if many of its disgruntled voters turn to LAOS.
If none of the three leading parties can form a coalition, the president dissolves parliament, calls new elections and asks a senior court official to form a caretaker government until new elections are held.
BLOCKING TACTICS?
The loser could trigger another parliamentary election in March by blocking the election of the president. Analysts also see this as unlikely as no party would gain from dragging Greece through a prolonged crisis. Karamanlis has ruled out using this tactic.
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