ANALYSIS-Mediation bid unlikely to solve Guinea crisis
* Prospects for mediation seen limited
* Breakdown of talks could be flashpoint for trouble * CNDD unwilling to relinquish power
By Daniel Magnowski
CONAKRY, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Prospects of international mediation breaking the political deadlock between Guinea's ruling junta and the opposition are slim, with a failure potentially leading to a new bout of unrest.
Since security forces killed more than 150 protesters, according to witnesses, in a Sept. 28 crackdown on dissent, opposition leaders have called on junta leader Captain Moussa Dadis Camara to step down immediately.
But Camara -- or "Dadis" as most Guineans call him since he seized power in a bloodless coup last December -- shows no sign of wanting to surrender power, and there is little scope for compromise between the two positions.
"I think it's unrealistic. You can't start a negotiation by saying 'I don't want power'," Guinean Foreign Minister Alexandre Ceceloua said of the opposition demands in Burkina Faso's capital Ouagadougou, where Burkinabe president and veteran regional peace-broker Blaise Compaore is leading talks this week.
With no fewer than three of Guinea's immediate neighbours -- Liberia, Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast -- still struggling to recover from civil wars, Guinea's crisis has raised worldwide concern of contagion across an already unstable region.
African neighbours, the European Union and ex-colonial power France have denounced Dadis' rule and launched sanctions such as arms embargoes, visa bans and freezes on the bank accounts of members of the junta -- who so far have shrugged them off.
The main international hope now lies with Campaore's effort.
The talks in Ouagadougou are aimed at reaching agreement on establishing a transitional government in the world's biggest exporter of aluminium ore bauxite, where many major resources firms have large operations.
NO CONFIDENCE
But the Sept. 28 killings in a sports stadium in the capital Conakry, and Dadis' failure so far to allow a return to civilian rule, make any real talks with him and his National Council for Democracy and Development (CNDD) difficult.
"What can a civilian opposition do against a group of people that is armed and ready to kill? There is no possibility of dialogue between the sides," said Madani Dia, an independent political analyst in Conakry.
A Western diplomat in Conakry agreed.
"It's almost impossible for the opposition to go back to negotiate with a party that's promised (elections) for 8 or 9 months," said the diplomat.
"If you were in the stadium, would you have any confidence?"
The mood of key figures within the junta hardly suggests they are going to the negotiating table with an open mind.
In a Reuters interview in Conakry last week, one of Dadis' senior aides, Idrissa Cherif, said the junta was the victim of plots and conspiracies, blaming former colonial power France for attempting to destabilise the country.
Dadis himself is no longer speaking to international media since a French television station interviewed him lying in bed, an appearance that exposed him to ridicule.
But in Conakry newspaper 'La Lance' he spoke of a "plot" involving the theft of weapons as being behind the killings, and repeated his message of defiance.
"Guinea is ... master of its destiny. Nobody can assume the right to tell it what to do. For my part, I will not surrender a particle of our national sovereignty," he vowed.
Though political opposition is widespread, many observers see disgruntled army officers or rival factions within the military as the most realistic threat to Dadis' power.
The capital has been quiet since the Sept. 28 killings but there are fears of another outbreak of trouble if talks fail.
"If political parties walk away, then that's going to be a real trigger point. If they move from days of staying at home to days of strikes, that could be a serious thing as in Guinea that means aggression," said the Western diplomat.
Mohamed Diane, executive secretary of the Assembly of Guinean People (RPG), the country's biggest opposition party, said they would have no other choice but try and persuade scared Guineans to take to the streets again.
"It's the only means we have, faced with an armed junta."
(Reporting by Daniel Magnowski and Saliou Samb in Conakry; additional reporting by Mathieu Bonkoungou in Ouagadougou; Editing by Giles Elgood)
* Breakdown of talks could be flashpoint for trouble * CNDD unwilling to relinquish power
By Daniel Magnowski
CONAKRY, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Prospects of international mediation breaking the political deadlock between Guinea's ruling junta and the opposition are slim, with a failure potentially leading to a new bout of unrest.
Since security forces killed more than 150 protesters, according to witnesses, in a Sept. 28 crackdown on dissent, opposition leaders have called on junta leader Captain Moussa Dadis Camara to step down immediately.
But Camara -- or "Dadis" as most Guineans call him since he seized power in a bloodless coup last December -- shows no sign of wanting to surrender power, and there is little scope for compromise between the two positions.
"I think it's unrealistic. You can't start a negotiation by saying 'I don't want power'," Guinean Foreign Minister Alexandre Ceceloua said of the opposition demands in Burkina Faso's capital Ouagadougou, where Burkinabe president and veteran regional peace-broker Blaise Compaore is leading talks this week.
With no fewer than three of Guinea's immediate neighbours -- Liberia, Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast -- still struggling to recover from civil wars, Guinea's crisis has raised worldwide concern of contagion across an already unstable region.
African neighbours, the European Union and ex-colonial power France have denounced Dadis' rule and launched sanctions such as arms embargoes, visa bans and freezes on the bank accounts of members of the junta -- who so far have shrugged them off.
The main international hope now lies with Campaore's effort.
The talks in Ouagadougou are aimed at reaching agreement on establishing a transitional government in the world's biggest exporter of aluminium ore bauxite, where many major resources firms have large operations.
NO CONFIDENCE
But the Sept. 28 killings in a sports stadium in the capital Conakry, and Dadis' failure so far to allow a return to civilian rule, make any real talks with him and his National Council for Democracy and Development (CNDD) difficult.
"What can a civilian opposition do against a group of people that is armed and ready to kill? There is no possibility of dialogue between the sides," said Madani Dia, an independent political analyst in Conakry.
A Western diplomat in Conakry agreed.
"It's almost impossible for the opposition to go back to negotiate with a party that's promised (elections) for 8 or 9 months," said the diplomat.
"If you were in the stadium, would you have any confidence?"
The mood of key figures within the junta hardly suggests they are going to the negotiating table with an open mind.
In a Reuters interview in Conakry last week, one of Dadis' senior aides, Idrissa Cherif, said the junta was the victim of plots and conspiracies, blaming former colonial power France for attempting to destabilise the country.
Dadis himself is no longer speaking to international media since a French television station interviewed him lying in bed, an appearance that exposed him to ridicule.
But in Conakry newspaper 'La Lance' he spoke of a "plot" involving the theft of weapons as being behind the killings, and repeated his message of defiance.
"Guinea is ... master of its destiny. Nobody can assume the right to tell it what to do. For my part, I will not surrender a particle of our national sovereignty," he vowed.
Though political opposition is widespread, many observers see disgruntled army officers or rival factions within the military as the most realistic threat to Dadis' power.
The capital has been quiet since the Sept. 28 killings but there are fears of another outbreak of trouble if talks fail.
"If political parties walk away, then that's going to be a real trigger point. If they move from days of staying at home to days of strikes, that could be a serious thing as in Guinea that means aggression," said the Western diplomat.
Mohamed Diane, executive secretary of the Assembly of Guinean People (RPG), the country's biggest opposition party, said they would have no other choice but try and persuade scared Guineans to take to the streets again.
"It's the only means we have, faced with an armed junta."
(Reporting by Daniel Magnowski and Saliou Samb in Conakry; additional reporting by Mathieu Bonkoungou in Ouagadougou; Editing by Giles Elgood)
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