FEATURE-In a closed Central Asian state, trouble brews
By Michael Stott and Maria Golovnina
TASHKENT, April 13 (Reuters) - Murat leaned over the table in a busy outdoor restaurant in Uzbekistan and lowered his voice to avoid attracting the attention of the secret police.
"Our factories are closing and our currency is collapsing," he whispered, as the smoke from the barbecues frying skewered lamb drifted over. "We have no future. Everyone is scared about the fate of their family and friends."
Increasingly isolated from the outside world, Uzbekistan is ruled with an iron fist by long-time President Islam Karimov, who tolerates no dissent in his strategically placed homeland.
Its command-style economy is faltering, its 27 million people on the brink of poverty, and the West is worried about stability in a country lying on a new alternative route for U.S. supplies bound for troops fighting in neighbouring Afghanistan.
The main market in the capital of Uzbekistan -- once famed as a stop on the ancient Silk Route -- reflects the darkening economic skies in the former Soviet, mainly Muslim republic.
Black market dealers eagerly buy dollars at rates more than 20 percent higher than the official one, a sign of falling confidence in the national currency, the sum.
Stall holders selling everything from carpets to spices complain of poor business. Groups of jobless men loiter on street corners, hoping to be hired as day labourers.
Figures trumpeted by the government point to 9.0 percent growth last year. Officials hail the economy's buoyancy as proof of the merits of its command economy policies, which date from the era when Soviet Communists were in charge.
Bridges over main roads running from Tashkent across this metals-rich state feature slogans hailing Karimov and praising Uzbekistan as a state with a "great future".
But Karimov's opponents, most of whom will only speak anonymously and in private for fear of retribution, say the official figures are invented to mask an ugly truth: growing poverty, rising joblessness and increased social tension.
Gathering information or official comment is hard. Karimov sacked his press secretary this year and a replacement had not been appointed at the time of these reporters' visit.
Spokesmen from government departments declined to talk, citing the lack of authorisation. Only one official source agreed to a clandestine meeting at a shopping centre.
In the absence of agreed facts and verifiable information, rumours fill the chancelleries of embassies and the bars frequented by foreigners.
RUMOURS
To understand Uzbekistan, said one long-time Western diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to make public statements, "you have to compare what you know, what you guess and what you think might be true".
The favourite rumours in Tashkent are about Karimov's health. Is the president sick ? Has he had a stroke ? Is he recovering ? Nobody knows, but in a few days' stay one is likely to hear all these and more.
In a state dominated by a single man, even government ministers are too frightened to make any comment.
"Karimov is obsessed with control," said another diplomat. "He is forceful and determined and he has the ability to terrify his staff. He has no commitment to market reforms and they are isolated from the international financial system."
Uzbekistan's colourful sum currency, created after independence in 1991 at 4 to the dollar, is now selling for 1,850 on the black market -- a fall of around 20 percent since the start of the year, according to residents.
Real wages are nearer to $150-200 per month than the official figure of $350, they add.
"The economic situation is getting worse," said Surat Ikramov, a human rights campaigner who says he has been beaten, threatened and poisoned because he opposes the government.
From his cramped Soviet-style apartment, he monitors rights abuses and meticulously documents each one. On his desk lie photographs of him with a disfigured face after an occasion when he says four masked agents abducted him, beat him, tied him in his car and tried to set fire to it.
His life was saved because the fuel tank was empty.He says Karimov "will stay to the end. He has usurped so much power that nobody can challenge him. He is like Stalin, maybe stronger."
Signs of tight state control abound. On the road from Tashkent to the tourist centre of Samarkand, cars are slowed to a crawl by checkpoints where police scrutinise the occupants.
Arriving in the town of Zhizzak, these reporters spent a few minutes walking around a local market when two police officers appeared and started interrogating their guide.
OPPOSITION
Nigora Khidoyatova, an opposition leader, knows what it is to feel the anger of Karimov's government. Her husband was shot dead in 2005 in an attack she blames on the government. Her sister Nodira was locked up for several months in 2006.
She warns against trusting official economic data. "The government numbers are not true," she said. "Every year the president gives Soviet-style figures on the cotton harvest and says the latest plan has been fulfilled."
Two-thirds of Uzbekistan's people are rural and the economy depends on cotton, which human rights bodies allege is harvested with forced child labour. The government says it has eliminated the use of children.
Karimov has said Islamist militancy is on the rise and is a threat, but rights groups say he is using it as an excuse to eliminate dissent and religious freedom.
The most notable example was when troops fired on protesters in the eastern city of Andizhan in May 2005, killing hundreds.
Uzbek officials make no secret of their fear that the United States will fail in its war in Afghanistan. "The Taliban and al-Qaeda see Uzbekistan as an important part of the caliphate that they want to build," one envoy explained.
Despite the growing problems, few expect mass rebellion in a country which has been so tightly controlled for so long.
"Uzbekistan is likely to continue poor, marginalised and on the fringes," another diplomat said. "The big historical mistake the Uzbeks make is to over-estimate their own attractiveness to the rest of the world. You hear officials say everyone wants to come here and invest but the truth is that there are virtually no foreign investors here." (Editing by Tim Pearce)
TASHKENT, April 13 (Reuters) - Murat leaned over the table in a busy outdoor restaurant in Uzbekistan and lowered his voice to avoid attracting the attention of the secret police.
"Our factories are closing and our currency is collapsing," he whispered, as the smoke from the barbecues frying skewered lamb drifted over. "We have no future. Everyone is scared about the fate of their family and friends."
Increasingly isolated from the outside world, Uzbekistan is ruled with an iron fist by long-time President Islam Karimov, who tolerates no dissent in his strategically placed homeland.
Its command-style economy is faltering, its 27 million people on the brink of poverty, and the West is worried about stability in a country lying on a new alternative route for U.S. supplies bound for troops fighting in neighbouring Afghanistan.
The main market in the capital of Uzbekistan -- once famed as a stop on the ancient Silk Route -- reflects the darkening economic skies in the former Soviet, mainly Muslim republic.
Black market dealers eagerly buy dollars at rates more than 20 percent higher than the official one, a sign of falling confidence in the national currency, the sum.
Stall holders selling everything from carpets to spices complain of poor business. Groups of jobless men loiter on street corners, hoping to be hired as day labourers.
Figures trumpeted by the government point to 9.0 percent growth last year. Officials hail the economy's buoyancy as proof of the merits of its command economy policies, which date from the era when Soviet Communists were in charge.
Bridges over main roads running from Tashkent across this metals-rich state feature slogans hailing Karimov and praising Uzbekistan as a state with a "great future".
But Karimov's opponents, most of whom will only speak anonymously and in private for fear of retribution, say the official figures are invented to mask an ugly truth: growing poverty, rising joblessness and increased social tension.
Gathering information or official comment is hard. Karimov sacked his press secretary this year and a replacement had not been appointed at the time of these reporters' visit.
Spokesmen from government departments declined to talk, citing the lack of authorisation. Only one official source agreed to a clandestine meeting at a shopping centre.
In the absence of agreed facts and verifiable information, rumours fill the chancelleries of embassies and the bars frequented by foreigners.
RUMOURS
To understand Uzbekistan, said one long-time Western diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to make public statements, "you have to compare what you know, what you guess and what you think might be true".
The favourite rumours in Tashkent are about Karimov's health. Is the president sick ? Has he had a stroke ? Is he recovering ? Nobody knows, but in a few days' stay one is likely to hear all these and more.
In a state dominated by a single man, even government ministers are too frightened to make any comment.
"Karimov is obsessed with control," said another diplomat. "He is forceful and determined and he has the ability to terrify his staff. He has no commitment to market reforms and they are isolated from the international financial system."
Uzbekistan's colourful sum currency, created after independence in 1991 at 4 to the dollar, is now selling for 1,850 on the black market -- a fall of around 20 percent since the start of the year, according to residents.
Real wages are nearer to $150-200 per month than the official figure of $350, they add.
"The economic situation is getting worse," said Surat Ikramov, a human rights campaigner who says he has been beaten, threatened and poisoned because he opposes the government.
From his cramped Soviet-style apartment, he monitors rights abuses and meticulously documents each one. On his desk lie photographs of him with a disfigured face after an occasion when he says four masked agents abducted him, beat him, tied him in his car and tried to set fire to it.
His life was saved because the fuel tank was empty.He says Karimov "will stay to the end. He has usurped so much power that nobody can challenge him. He is like Stalin, maybe stronger."
Signs of tight state control abound. On the road from Tashkent to the tourist centre of Samarkand, cars are slowed to a crawl by checkpoints where police scrutinise the occupants.
Arriving in the town of Zhizzak, these reporters spent a few minutes walking around a local market when two police officers appeared and started interrogating their guide.
OPPOSITION
Nigora Khidoyatova, an opposition leader, knows what it is to feel the anger of Karimov's government. Her husband was shot dead in 2005 in an attack she blames on the government. Her sister Nodira was locked up for several months in 2006.
She warns against trusting official economic data. "The government numbers are not true," she said. "Every year the president gives Soviet-style figures on the cotton harvest and says the latest plan has been fulfilled."
Two-thirds of Uzbekistan's people are rural and the economy depends on cotton, which human rights bodies allege is harvested with forced child labour. The government says it has eliminated the use of children.
Karimov has said Islamist militancy is on the rise and is a threat, but rights groups say he is using it as an excuse to eliminate dissent and religious freedom.
The most notable example was when troops fired on protesters in the eastern city of Andizhan in May 2005, killing hundreds.
Uzbek officials make no secret of their fear that the United States will fail in its war in Afghanistan. "The Taliban and al-Qaeda see Uzbekistan as an important part of the caliphate that they want to build," one envoy explained.
Despite the growing problems, few expect mass rebellion in a country which has been so tightly controlled for so long.
"Uzbekistan is likely to continue poor, marginalised and on the fringes," another diplomat said. "The big historical mistake the Uzbeks make is to over-estimate their own attractiveness to the rest of the world. You hear officials say everyone wants to come here and invest but the truth is that there are virtually no foreign investors here." (Editing by Tim Pearce)
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