INSTANT VIEW-Reaction to release of Nigerian rebel Okah
July 13 (Reuters) - Below is reaction to the release of Nigerian rebel leader Henry Okah on Monday.
Attacks by MEND rebels in the Niger Delta have slashed Nigerian oil production.
They said before Okah's release that they had carried out an attack on an oil tanker loading dock near Lagos.
ANTONY GOLDMAN, HEAD OF PM CONSULTING
"The extent to which someone like Okah actually has an operational capacity or just has a symbolic importance is something we will shortly find out
"There certainly are people in Nigeria who felt it was a gimmick and that it amounted to a climbdown to criminal tendencies but they don't have an alternative. That's the trouble.
"The real issues in the delta are lack of cohesion, poverty unemployment and environment damage.
"In the best scenarios the release of one individual is going to be the beginning of a starting point rather than the end of the matter. It's a very particular conflict in the Niger Delta that will only be settled in a very particular kind of way
"I don't think the structure of the armed groups is such that you could have a simple settlement.
"The question remains as to who can deliver and who has the confidence of the people in the Niger Delta, can begin to tackle some of these issues and can work with Federal government and state governments.
If it was easy they would resolved it long ago."
ELIZABETH DONNELLY, AFRICA PROGRAMME MANAGER, CHATAM HOUSE
"On the one hand, the Federal Government, or at least the Joint Task Force, appears to be trying to show it's the stronger player.
"On the other hand, the release of Henry Okah shows a willingness to compromise and it's not clear exactly who is calling the shots.
"It should calm some down but it is not going to be the end of anything.
"All the reasons that the trouble started in the Niger Delta are still there. The release reveals that militants can make demands and they will be met. Given the conditions in the Niger Delta, I can't believe attacks will stop.
"While MEND does release statements, there are factions within MEND so it is never clear what the thinking is, that there is a coherent strategy on their part, who is in control."
Attacks by MEND rebels in the Niger Delta have slashed Nigerian oil production.
They said before Okah's release that they had carried out an attack on an oil tanker loading dock near Lagos.
ANTONY GOLDMAN, HEAD OF PM CONSULTING
"The extent to which someone like Okah actually has an operational capacity or just has a symbolic importance is something we will shortly find out
"There certainly are people in Nigeria who felt it was a gimmick and that it amounted to a climbdown to criminal tendencies but they don't have an alternative. That's the trouble.
"The real issues in the delta are lack of cohesion, poverty unemployment and environment damage.
"In the best scenarios the release of one individual is going to be the beginning of a starting point rather than the end of the matter. It's a very particular conflict in the Niger Delta that will only be settled in a very particular kind of way
"I don't think the structure of the armed groups is such that you could have a simple settlement.
"The question remains as to who can deliver and who has the confidence of the people in the Niger Delta, can begin to tackle some of these issues and can work with Federal government and state governments.
If it was easy they would resolved it long ago."
ELIZABETH DONNELLY, AFRICA PROGRAMME MANAGER, CHATAM HOUSE
"On the one hand, the Federal Government, or at least the Joint Task Force, appears to be trying to show it's the stronger player.
"On the other hand, the release of Henry Okah shows a willingness to compromise and it's not clear exactly who is calling the shots.
"It should calm some down but it is not going to be the end of anything.
"All the reasons that the trouble started in the Niger Delta are still there. The release reveals that militants can make demands and they will be met. Given the conditions in the Niger Delta, I can't believe attacks will stop.
"While MEND does release statements, there are factions within MEND so it is never clear what the thinking is, that there is a coherent strategy on their part, who is in control."
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