SCENARIOS-No quick fix in sight for Honduras crisis
By Daniel Trotta
TEGUCIGALPA, July 10 (Reuters) - Honduras was locked in crisis on Friday with both men who claim to be the legitimate president after the June 28 coup each sticking to conflicting and seemingly intractable positions.
Ousted President Manuel Zelaya insists he should be reinstated immediately but has been shut out of his country, traveling the Americas in search of international support.
Interim President Roberto Micheletti, installed by Congress after the coup, says Zelaya disqualified himself by violating the constitution when he pursued a vote meant to gauge public support for a constituent assembly on lifting presidential term limits.
Following are possible scenarios on how the crisis could play out:
THE STATUS QUO HOLDS:
This would seem the most likely scenario at the moment.
Micheletti could continue to ignore calls from the United States and the Organization of American States to reinstate Zelaya, keep himself in power until Nov. 29 elections and hand over to a new president for the Jan. 27 inauguration.
Micheletti has the support of the Supreme Court, a majority in Congress, the high command of the armed forces and business leaders, all of whom played a role in stripping Zelaya of power and expelling him from the country.
Many Zelaya opponents are hoping to run out the clock until new elections are held, producing a new president that the world could recognize.
The consequences? Further diplomatic isolation and possible domestic unrest. The OAS expelled Honduras and the United States cut off $16.5 million in military aid and a further $180 million in civilian aid could also be at risk. Additional stress on the economy could draw down foreign reserves, weaken the lempira currency and cause inflation.
MEDIATOR OSCAR ARIAS DELIVERS A MIRACLE:
The Costa Rican president is mediating the Honduran dispute and received both Zelaya and Micheletti on Thursday, but he could not get them to meet face-to-face.
"Dialogue can produce miracles but not immediate ones and this could possibly take much longer than one might imagine," Arias said.
Any mediated solution would likely include immunity against prosecution for all the major players.
The consequences? A lengthy process would also create economic instability and draw close to the November elections, leaving Zelaya with the prospect of a reinstatement so abbreviated as to be meaningless.
ZELAYA RETURNS ON HIS OWN:
Zelaya could sneak into the country in the hopes of triggering an insurrection by supporters to get back into office or forming a clandestine, parallel government with the support of friendly leftist governments in Latin America.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who lent Zelaya a plane for his foiled attempt to return on Sunday, might be willing to help him try such a move again.
The consequences? Zelaya would either be arrested immediately or spark clashes certain to spill blood.
WORLD STEPS UP PRESSURE TO REINSTATE ZELAYA:
Zelaya's best hope is for the United States and Latin America to increase pressure on Honduras with diplomatic and economic sanctions that force Micheletti to relent.
The consequences? Foreign powers would be responsible for imposing painful measures on the third poorest country in the Americas and raising the ire of Honduran politicians and average people who have already expressed outrage at foreign meddling from Chavez, the Zelaya ally and anti-American firebrand.
A COUNTER-COUP
The most remote possibility. Junior officers could rebel against the high command and throw support behind Zelaya.
The consequences? Bloodshed, instability and a diplomatic mess. (Editing by Pascal Fletcher)
TEGUCIGALPA, July 10 (Reuters) - Honduras was locked in crisis on Friday with both men who claim to be the legitimate president after the June 28 coup each sticking to conflicting and seemingly intractable positions.
Ousted President Manuel Zelaya insists he should be reinstated immediately but has been shut out of his country, traveling the Americas in search of international support.
Interim President Roberto Micheletti, installed by Congress after the coup, says Zelaya disqualified himself by violating the constitution when he pursued a vote meant to gauge public support for a constituent assembly on lifting presidential term limits.
Following are possible scenarios on how the crisis could play out:
THE STATUS QUO HOLDS:
This would seem the most likely scenario at the moment.
Micheletti could continue to ignore calls from the United States and the Organization of American States to reinstate Zelaya, keep himself in power until Nov. 29 elections and hand over to a new president for the Jan. 27 inauguration.
Micheletti has the support of the Supreme Court, a majority in Congress, the high command of the armed forces and business leaders, all of whom played a role in stripping Zelaya of power and expelling him from the country.
Many Zelaya opponents are hoping to run out the clock until new elections are held, producing a new president that the world could recognize.
The consequences? Further diplomatic isolation and possible domestic unrest. The OAS expelled Honduras and the United States cut off $16.5 million in military aid and a further $180 million in civilian aid could also be at risk. Additional stress on the economy could draw down foreign reserves, weaken the lempira currency and cause inflation.
MEDIATOR OSCAR ARIAS DELIVERS A MIRACLE:
The Costa Rican president is mediating the Honduran dispute and received both Zelaya and Micheletti on Thursday, but he could not get them to meet face-to-face.
"Dialogue can produce miracles but not immediate ones and this could possibly take much longer than one might imagine," Arias said.
Any mediated solution would likely include immunity against prosecution for all the major players.
The consequences? A lengthy process would also create economic instability and draw close to the November elections, leaving Zelaya with the prospect of a reinstatement so abbreviated as to be meaningless.
ZELAYA RETURNS ON HIS OWN:
Zelaya could sneak into the country in the hopes of triggering an insurrection by supporters to get back into office or forming a clandestine, parallel government with the support of friendly leftist governments in Latin America.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who lent Zelaya a plane for his foiled attempt to return on Sunday, might be willing to help him try such a move again.
The consequences? Zelaya would either be arrested immediately or spark clashes certain to spill blood.
WORLD STEPS UP PRESSURE TO REINSTATE ZELAYA:
Zelaya's best hope is for the United States and Latin America to increase pressure on Honduras with diplomatic and economic sanctions that force Micheletti to relent.
The consequences? Foreign powers would be responsible for imposing painful measures on the third poorest country in the Americas and raising the ire of Honduran politicians and average people who have already expressed outrage at foreign meddling from Chavez, the Zelaya ally and anti-American firebrand.
A COUNTER-COUP
The most remote possibility. Junior officers could rebel against the high command and throw support behind Zelaya.
The consequences? Bloodshed, instability and a diplomatic mess. (Editing by Pascal Fletcher)
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