China Party to set course, choose future leaders
By Chris Buckley
BEIJING, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Chinese President Hu Jintao faces a watershed in his rule when a Communist Party Congress ends on Sunday by acclaiming his policies and starting to promote a new leadership crucial to shaping his policies and legacy.
After a week of rhetorical displays of unity around Hu, the five-yearly Party Congress seems sure to approve his "state of the nation" work report and write his slogan of a "scientific outlook on development" into the Party charter.
But while the 2,213 carefully vetted delegates have applauded Hu's vows to weave economic growth with environmental and welfare improvement in his next and probably last five years in office, silence has surrounded appointments to the inner sanctum where real power lies -- and where the nature of Hu's legacy will be determined.
On Sunday, delegates will vote in a new Central Committee, a ruling council with 200 or so full members, having already cut out 8 percent of candidates in a preliminary vote the day before.
The Committee will in turn appoint a Politburo of a few dozen members and a Politburo Standing Committee, the innermost ring of power with possibly nine members, which will be revealed on Monday.
More than slogans, the membership of these elite bodies will tell how much power Hu wields and how he intends to use it, and who Hu's potential successors and rivals are.
Signs suggest Hu will emerge from the meeting stronger, but he will still be careful to cultivate ties with officials across different regions and constituencies.
"Hu has the power; it's now up to him to decide how he wants to use it and what he wants to do," said Li Datong, a former editor at a Party newspaper who now publishes political analyses.
"But Hu won't be adventurous. That's not in his nature, and the Party and country have already formed interest groups that any leader would find it very difficult to move."
NEW CHALLENGES
Hu's work report underscored that he is focused on how to maintain Party power in a China where leaders no longer go unquestioned by their peers or ordinary citizens.
He promised a "harmonious society" cleansed of conflict and a "scientific outlook of development" aiming to divert more prosperity to backward villages and poor workers and to cleaning up fouled skies and waterways.
Hu's predecessor, Jiang Zemin, took 13 years before he was able to push his trademark notions into the Party charter shortly before his retirement in 2002.
That Hu has now been able to do the same with many years still in office shows his growing clout, said analysts.
"Hu has managed to get it in after only five years, and he has five more years to use it to shape the political environment and influence China's development pattern," said Joseph Fewsmith of Boston University.
But much will hang on who leaves and who joins the powerful Standing Committee.
Vice President Zeng Qinghong, a powerful Party organisation chief who was long close to Jiang, is widely expected to retire from the Standing Committee, giving Hu greater scope to use proteges.
Li Keqiang, Party boss of the northeastern industrial province of Liaoning, is a front-runner for promotion who worked under Hu in the Communist Youth League.
But the new inner core is also likely to include Shanghai Party boss Xi Jinping and other, younger faces who do not necessarily have longstanding ties with Hu.
Most analysts said this array of promotions reflected Hu's design to accommodate increasingly varied interest groups and regions, rather than an outright capitulation to rivals, including the ageing Jiang.
BEIJING, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Chinese President Hu Jintao faces a watershed in his rule when a Communist Party Congress ends on Sunday by acclaiming his policies and starting to promote a new leadership crucial to shaping his policies and legacy.
After a week of rhetorical displays of unity around Hu, the five-yearly Party Congress seems sure to approve his "state of the nation" work report and write his slogan of a "scientific outlook on development" into the Party charter.
But while the 2,213 carefully vetted delegates have applauded Hu's vows to weave economic growth with environmental and welfare improvement in his next and probably last five years in office, silence has surrounded appointments to the inner sanctum where real power lies -- and where the nature of Hu's legacy will be determined.
On Sunday, delegates will vote in a new Central Committee, a ruling council with 200 or so full members, having already cut out 8 percent of candidates in a preliminary vote the day before.
The Committee will in turn appoint a Politburo of a few dozen members and a Politburo Standing Committee, the innermost ring of power with possibly nine members, which will be revealed on Monday.
More than slogans, the membership of these elite bodies will tell how much power Hu wields and how he intends to use it, and who Hu's potential successors and rivals are.
Signs suggest Hu will emerge from the meeting stronger, but he will still be careful to cultivate ties with officials across different regions and constituencies.
"Hu has the power; it's now up to him to decide how he wants to use it and what he wants to do," said Li Datong, a former editor at a Party newspaper who now publishes political analyses.
"But Hu won't be adventurous. That's not in his nature, and the Party and country have already formed interest groups that any leader would find it very difficult to move."
NEW CHALLENGES
Hu's work report underscored that he is focused on how to maintain Party power in a China where leaders no longer go unquestioned by their peers or ordinary citizens.
He promised a "harmonious society" cleansed of conflict and a "scientific outlook of development" aiming to divert more prosperity to backward villages and poor workers and to cleaning up fouled skies and waterways.
Hu's predecessor, Jiang Zemin, took 13 years before he was able to push his trademark notions into the Party charter shortly before his retirement in 2002.
That Hu has now been able to do the same with many years still in office shows his growing clout, said analysts.
"Hu has managed to get it in after only five years, and he has five more years to use it to shape the political environment and influence China's development pattern," said Joseph Fewsmith of Boston University.
But much will hang on who leaves and who joins the powerful Standing Committee.
Vice President Zeng Qinghong, a powerful Party organisation chief who was long close to Jiang, is widely expected to retire from the Standing Committee, giving Hu greater scope to use proteges.
Li Keqiang, Party boss of the northeastern industrial province of Liaoning, is a front-runner for promotion who worked under Hu in the Communist Youth League.
But the new inner core is also likely to include Shanghai Party boss Xi Jinping and other, younger faces who do not necessarily have longstanding ties with Hu.
Most analysts said this array of promotions reflected Hu's design to accommodate increasingly varied interest groups and regions, rather than an outright capitulation to rivals, including the ageing Jiang.
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