SINGAPORE, June 22 Libyan crude exports could
hit 355,000 barrels a day in the short term from the
rebel-controlled east, and that level is unlikely to prevent
prices from heading higher in the second half of the year, U.S.
bank Goldman Sachs said in a report.
Exports from the North African producer could touch 585,000
bpd from additional shipments from fields in the west if there
was a change in the government, the report dated Tuesday said.
Libyan oil production fell from 1.58 million bpd in January
to just 100,000 bpd in May, while exports have stopped entirely,
according to the International Energy Agency.
"The opposition forces could resume about 200,000 bpd of
crude exports as some fields and their related export terminals
are largely intact. A further 155,000 bpd could potentially be
exported at a later stage from a second loading port under their
control," Goldman Sachs said.
However, bringing back the remaining 1 million barrels of
lost production will be challenging as some export terminals
remain under government control, while several oil installations
have also been severely damaged.
Supply disruptions in Libya and unrest in other oil
producers in the region have put a premium of around $10-$20 a
barrel to prices, traders and analysts have said.
Goldman Sachs said the recent slump in crude is temporary,
and expects trading to remain volatile in the near-term before
strong demand from China and India drives prices higher in the
second half of 2011.
"We expect upward pressure on oil prices to increase in 2H11
as slower, but sustained, oil demand growth draws on inventory
and OPEC spare capacity."
Oil prices suffered their biggest weekly losses since early
May last week on concerns over weaker economic outlook and the
European debt crisis.
(Reporting by Francis Kan; Editing by Manash Goswami)