* Threat of El Nino eases, but not completely ruled out
* Malaysian output may be capped by tree stress, Indonesian
yields to surge
* Malaysian stockpiles seen hitting close to 2 mln tonnes in
* Prices to be trapped between 2,300-2,600 rgt in absence of
By Anuradha Raghu
KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 4 Palm oil production in top
growers Indonesia and Malaysia could pick up in the final months
of this year, keeping a lid on prices, although some in the
market are still worried about a potential El Nino plus tree
stress in Malaysia.
Crude palm prices in Malaysia <0#FCPO:> have tumbled more
than 15 percent this year, due in part to a bumper harvest of
rival soybeans. On Monday the benchmark October contract
was down 1.1 percent at 2,260 ringgit ($706) per tonne
The El Nino weather phenomenon, a warming of sea
temperatures in the Pacific, can drench parts of the globe and
parch others, damaging crops and food supply. Worries about an
El Nino made many cautious about the palm crop initially this
However, Malaysia, the second-biggest producer, churned out
9.1 million tonnes of crude palm oil between January and June,
up from 8.4 million in the same period last year.
"Output will be good. It is already showing signs of
double-digit growth," said a trader with a Malaysian commodities
brokerage. "In another two or three months, we're going to get
close to 1.9 to 2.0 million tonnes of stocks."
Malaysian stocks stood at 1.66 million at the end of June.
The Malaysian Palm Oil Board, the industry regulator, sees
output hitting a record 19.5 million tonnes this year versus
19.2 million in 2013.
Not everyone expects such a surge. Some planters say output
will be capped by the delayed impact of a short drought earlier
"Production will pick up but the big question is by how
much," said Carl Bek-Nielson, chief executive of
Danish-Malaysian United Plantations.
"We don't expect a bumper crop in the second half as a
function of the very dry weather and the stress the palm tress
were exposed to in the first half," he added.
Fears of an El Nino have not entirely disappeared, either.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said on July 29 that
Pacific Ocean temperatures had eased in recent weeks but that an
El Nino could not be ruled out, even though it was "increasingly
unlikely to be a strong event" if it did occur.
"Overall, output could be higher, but it is subject to the
El Nino effect," said Puru Kumaran, chief financial officer at
IJM Plantations Bhd. "We really don't know whether
there could be an effect that could hit towards the last quarter
of the year."
INDONESIAN OUTPUT TO RISE
The outlook for crude palm oil output in Indonesia, the
world's biggest grower, has turned round recently.
The Agriculture Ministry said in mid-July that output in
2014 had initially been forecast to drop 15-20 percent due to
the predicted El Nino, but now it was expected to reach 29.5
million tonnes, up 6.3 percent from 27.8 million in 2013.
Indonesia and Malaysia together account for 85 percent of
the world's palm oil.
Bumper supplies of soybeans for crushing into soyoil could
depress prices of the rival edible oil and turn price-sensitive
buyers away from palm oil unless its prices fall, too.
"There's a lot of competition from soybean oil. It really
depends on the prices. If palm is priced cheap enough, the
demand will be there," said Ivy Ng, an analyst at CIMB Research
in Kuala Lumpur.
Refined palm olein currently trades at a discount of about
$90 to soyoil <0#AMSOYOIL-AR>, compared to about $60 at the
start of 2014 and $300 in January 2013.
Ng expected palm prices to trade between 2,300 and 2,600
ringgit a tonne for the rest of the year, a little above the
"I don't think it can break out of that range unless
something drastic happens to the weather in the U.S. or in the
palm oil region," she said.
Other analysts have also turned more bearish. Kenanga
Investment Bank's Alan Lim has slashed his forecast for average
prices in 2014 to 2,500 ringgit per tonne from 2,800 ringgit,
citing lower estimates for soybean oil prices.
($1 = 3.200 Malaysian Ringgit)
(Editing by Alan Raybould)