Russian loophole offers Putin chance of third term

By Christian Lowe - Analysis

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin could run for re-election in next year's presidential vote if he resigns early to get around a ban on serving three consecutive terms, a lobbyist close to the Kremlin has said.

Putin has said he will step down next year and let someone else take over. His spokesman said that has not changed. But a source with Kremlin links told Reuters the option of exploiting legal loopholes is being pushed by parts of his entourage.

Under that scenario, Putin could announce as early as this month that he is stepping down ahead of term. His prime minister, Viktor Zubkov, would become caretaker president and Putin would run in the scheduled March 2008 presidential vote.

The question of what Putin will do next is preoccupying Russians and foreign investors because he wields huge personal power in his vast, nuclear-armed country, many people see him as a guarantor of stability and he has no clear successor.

Western companies as well as foreign governments, for all their reservations about his democratic credentials, also see him as a "known figure" with whom they can deal.

"It is quite possible for Putin to run as a candidate for the presidency in the 2008 elections," Alexander Shokhin, the head of Russia's biggest business lobby, told Russia's Itogi magazine this week.

"And there is no need to change the constitution," he said. "Gaps remain in the law."

Russia's constitution states that "one and the same person cannot occupy the post of President of the Russian Federation for more than two consecutive terms."

Analysts have speculated Putin could sidestep this by making way for a new president and returning at the next election in 2012, or sooner if his successor does not serve a full term.

Another option is for him to step down but retain influence in another capacity, possibly as prime minister.

QUICK COMEBACK

But the scenario outlined by Shokhin and others would allow Putin to return to his old job after an interval of just weeks.

A federal law on presidential elections states that a president who leaves office before the end of term "cannot be put forward as a candidate in elections called in connection with him ceasing to exercise his powers ahead of schedule."

This is where the loophole lies. The law contains no restriction on a president running in elections which were not called as a result of his leaving office early.

If Putin steps down after the date of the presidential vote is officially announced -- this is expected to happen on November 26 -- he will be taking part in a scheduled election.