* U.S. data, Cyprus concerns push German Bunds higher
* Semi-core rally seen stalling awaiting Japan inflows
By William James and Emelia Sithole-Matarise
LONDON, April 12 Demand for less risky assets
helped German Bunds rally on Friday as bail-out candidate
Cyprus's plight unnerved investors and economic data showed the
outlook for the U.S. economy darkening.
Although finance ministers backed a 10 billion euro bailout
package for Cyprus, yields fell on highly-rated euro zone bonds
issued by the likes of Germany, the Netherlands and France as
investors backed away from riskier assets.
The bailout deal is now ready to be approved by individual
member states, but investors' recent buoyant mood was tempered
by the stark reminder that the region's 3 1/2-year-old debt
crisis remains unresolved.
"We're having a risk-off day. There's been an overhang
because of Cyprus all day long... markets are getting a little
bit sceptical that these things are never quite as plain sailing
as first though," said Marc Ostwald, strategist at Monument
Securities in London.
Cyprus will have to contribute 13 billion euros, almost
twice the original estimate, though EU Economic Affairs
Commissioner Olli Rehn insisted on Friday the two figures were
not directly comparable.
However, the sweeping steps needed to raise that cash have
stoked concerns that the Cypriot economy will continue to
struggle and ultimately need more cash.
The Bund future was 63 ticks up on the day at
145.88, with German 10-year yields 5 basis points
down at 1.258 percent, leaving it just 6 basis points from
eight-month lows hit last week.
Bund futures extended losses after U.S. retail sales data
came in weaker than expected and a consumer sentiment reading
fell to the lowest since July 2012. The latest in a series of
poor data reports added weight to the view that the recovery in
the world's largest economy was flagging.
"The rally is now being driven by the U.S., and Bund and
other core markets are benefiting from that to an extent," said
Patrick Jacq, strategist at BNP Paribas in Paris.
LOOKING TO JAPAN
Analysts raised questions over how much further the rally
seen across most of the euro zone's sovereign bonds this week
could go. Yields on Belgian, French and other country's bonds
have hit record lows on speculation that a huge injection of
cash by the Bank of Japan could spill over into the euro zone.
But the rally had been driven more by domestic players
looking to buy in anticipation of the inflow of Japanese cash.
Market participants were waiting for hard data to show Japanese
investors buying up euro zone bonds.
"There's been no follow-through in terms of the flow out of
Japan so people are questioning now the impact the BOJ policy
may have so we are taking back a little bit of the hype out of
the market and we may see yields go up a bit," said Alessandro
Tentori, global head of rates strategy at Citi.
Although anticipation of flows from Japan into the currency
bloc also benefited lower-rated bonds, some analysts are
sceptical they will actually switch from their domestic bonds
into riskier paper from, for example, heavily-indebted Italy,
struggling to form a government after February elections.
"When it comes to the banks and pension funds it's unlikely
that they will all of a sudden go into Spain and Italy. France
is likely to remain one of the favourites," Tentori said.
Ten-year Italian bonds recovered from an early
selloff to stand flat on the day at a yield of 4.33 percent,
while equivalent Spanish bond yields were 3 basis
points higher at 4.7 percent.