* Investors seek safe havens amid escalation in Ukraine
* German Bund yields on track for biggest daily fall since
* Italy slips back into recession as Q2 GDP unexpectedly
(Updates prices, adds German auction, quote)
By Marius Zaharia
LONDON, Aug 6 German Bund yields fell to record
lows on Wednesday as investors sought refuge in top-rated assets
after Russia appeared to step up military exercises near its
border with Ukraine.
Data showing Italy unexpectedly slipped back into recession
in the second quarter, exacerbating worries about the pace of
the euro zone's economic recovery, also fuelled demand for
investments perceived as offering a safe haven.
"Geopolitical strains in Ukraine with reports of possible
Russian retaliation are fuelling a flight to quality, and adding
to the risk sentiment was this disappointing data out of Italy,"
DZ Bank rate strategist Christian Lenk said. "These two factors
justify yields moving back towards record lows."
NATO said on Wednesday that Moscow has amassed around 20,000
troops on Ukraine's eastern border and warned that Russia could
use the excuse of a humanitarian or peacekeeping mission to send
troops into eastern Ukraine.
President Vladimir Putin has ordered his government to
prepare retaliatory measures following the latest round of
Western sanctions, which may include banning European airlines
from flying over Russian territory.
Bund yields fell 7 basis points to 1.10
percent, a new record low, and were on track for their biggest
daily fall since September 2013. Bund futures were up
85 ticks at 148.86.
"We're going to trade pretty firm on the back of all this
Russian invasion noise," one trader said.
Germany sold 2.5 billion euros of five-year bonds at much
lower yields than at a previous sale, with a downbeat inflation
and growth outlook contributing to the solid result.
The European Central Bank meets on Thursday, but is not
expected to tweak policy as it has signalled it will assess the
effects of June's rate cuts and fresh long-term loans to banks
(TLTROs) it will make in September before taking further steps.
But it is likely to emphasise its readiness to act if the
inflation outlook should deteriorate further.
"There is no potential for yields to rise significantly in
the near term, given the prospect of dovish comments from the
ECB, the TLTROs in September and given that the economy remains
weak," said Patrick Jacq, rate strategist at BNP Paribas.
Data showed German factory orders fell 3.2 percent in June,
versus expectations of a 1 percent rise.
Italy's economy unexpectedly shrank by 0.2 percent in the
second quarter from the first three months of the year, taking
it into its third recession since 2008.
Italy, which with Spain was at the fore when the euro zone
debt crisis peaked in 2011 and 2012, badly needs growth to help
cap one of the world's biggest debt burdens, now standing at
over 2 trillion euros. The two periphery countries' fortunes
appear to be diverging, after Spain's economy grew 0.6 percent
in the second quarter, its fastest pace since 2007.
The West's sanctions on Russia could also act as a drag on
Europe through the trade channel. Finland's prime minister said
on Wednesday it could potentially go back into economic crisis
due to the indirect impact of the sanctions.
The poor economic data, coupled with a general preference
for higher-rated assets worldwide due to the tensions in
Ukraine, pushed peripheral debt yields higher.
Italian 10-year bond yields rose 6 basis
points to 2.82 percent, while Spanish yields rose
4 basis points to 2.60 percent.
"Overall, there should be little doubt that the growth
impulse in Italy remains narrow, and a durable exit from the
crisis has yet to be confirmed," said Timo del Carpio, European
economist at RBC Capital Markets.
(Editing by Catherine Evans)