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COMMODITIES-Index lowest since June 2012; oil, gold fall on rising dollar
November 1, 2013 / 9:01 PM / in 4 years

COMMODITIES-Index lowest since June 2012; oil, gold fall on rising dollar

* Better-than-expected U.S. data boosts dollar, hurts gold,
oil
    * Natgas falls on mild weather
    * Commodities out of favor as investors pile into equities

    NEW YORK, Nov 1 (Reuters) - A leading commodities index sank
to its weakest since June 2012 on Friday as upbeat data
bolstered the dollar and hurt oil and gold prices, while natural
gas prices hurtled lower for a fifth straight session due to
forecasts of mild weather.
    Gold fell about 1 percent on Friday, posting its biggest
weekly loss in seven weeks, as better-than-expected
manufacturing data renewed anxiety that the Federal Reserve
could scale back its bond-buying stimulus for the U.S. economy.
    The Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB index,
closed down 1.04 percent to 274.9596, weighed by losses in 16 of
the 19 commodities it tracks.
    That was its lowest reading since the end of June last year
as the U.S. dollar has resurged on growing optimism about the
recovery of the world's biggest economy.
    A stronger U.S. currency makes dollar-denominated assets
such as gold more expensive for foreign investors.
    "A drop in the euro on the back of weaker inflation figures
and very good U.S. data has strengthened the dollar, in turn
weighing on gold," Natixis analyst Bernard Dahdah said.
    Investors have also piled into equities, seeing better
returns there amid doubts about long-term demand from China, the
world's No. 1 consumer of key commodities, and oversupplies of
oil and copper.     
    The euro fell for a fifth day against the dollar,
heading for its biggest weekly loss in 16 months, on growing
expectations the European Central Bank will ease monetary policy
further to protect growth. 
    On Friday, data showed U.S. factory output grew at its
fastest pace in 2-1/2 years, beating economists' expectations.
 
    While that fuels hopes for the U.S. economy, it also
complicates investors' expectations for when the Federal Reserve
may begin to trim its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases.
    Investors also digested mixed comments from top Fed
officials.
    Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker reiterated his view
that the U.S. labor market has recovered enough in the last 14
months to allow the U.S. central bank to reduce its bond-buying
stimulus. 
    But St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard
called for the Fed to wait for signs that U.S. inflation is
heading higher before starting to scale back its massive
bond-buying program.    
    Elsewhere in commodities, arabica coffee and corn prices
were hit by renewed selling amid concerns about oversupplies.
    Arabica sank to a four-and-a-half-year low before eking out
small gains on the day on a flurry of short covering, while corn
sank to its weakest in three years.  
    Frozen orange juice and coffee were the only markets to
close higher on Friday.
    On Thursday, S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC said its Dow
Jones-UBS Commodity Index will increase its weightings for Brent
crude, gold and silver next year, while cutting back on natural
gas, U.S. crude oil futures and some base metals.
 
    
    GOLD ON FED WATCH
    Gold was down 3 percent for the week, reversing two
consecutive weekly gains. 
    Any sign that the Fed will reduce its bond buying is likely
to weigh heavily on gold. Funds and institutional investors have
in recent years bought gold as a hedge against inflation and
monetary actions by central banks.
    "Overall, investors have expected a reduction in monetary
easing. So, even though there have been no changes effective
this year, the market is selling off in anticipation of Fed
tapering eventually," said Erica Rannestad, precious metals
analyst at the CPM Group.
    U.S. Comex gold futures for December settled down
$10.50 to $1,313.20 an ounce, with trading volume about 20
percent below its 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data
showed.
    "I wouldn't be surprised to see a drop below $1,300 next
week if there's more good data out of the U.S.," said Natixis'
Dahdah.
    
    OVERSUPPLY OFFSETS LIBYA OUTAGE
    Brent oil tumbled by nearly $3 a barrel and settled at its
lowest point since early July, narrowing its premium to U.S.
crude in heavy selling.
    Traders shrugged off Libya's oil supply outage and instead
focused on a strong dollar and a supply overhang that set an
overall bearish market tone.
    U.S. crude oil futures sank to the lowest since June, while
Brent ended with its largest daily percentage loss also since
June. 
    Brent's steeper losses narrowed its premium over WTI by $1.16 from Thursday's close, after it hit a
seven-month high of $13.60 in the previous session.
    Brent crude for December delivery settled down $2.93
at $105.91 a barrel, a loss of 2.7 percent, its largest daily
percentage loss since June 20. The last time Brent settled lower
was on July 4, at $105.54.
    U.S. oil for December fell $1.77 to settle at $94.61,
posting a fourth straight week of losses and its longest losing
streak since June 2012. It was the lowest settlement price for
the U.S. contract since June 21 at $93.69.
    "We have weak fundamentals in the oil market, and once we
broke $95 in U.S. crude, the whole complex came under pressure,"
said Gene McGillian, an analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford,
Connecticut.

    MILD WEATHER HURTS NAT GAS
    U.S. natural gas futures ended lower for a fifth straight
session, pressured by forecasts for mild weather that should
slow demand, the day after a weekly inventory report came in
slightly above consensus estimates. 
    The nearby contract, down 1.8 percent in the previous two
weeks, finished the week down 5.2 percent as moderate forecasts
through mid-November weighed on prices. It was the biggest
weekly decline in two months.
    "Weather forecasts turned warmer this week, and there's no
end in sight. And some private forecasts for November and
December are also looking more bearish," said Steve Mosley at
The SMC Report in Arkansas.
    Front-month gas futures on the New York Mercantile
Exchange ended down 6.8 cents, or 1.9 percent, at $3.513 per
million British thermal units, after trading between $3.508 and
$3.578.    
    
 Prices at 4:43 p.m. EDT (2043 GMT)      
                              LAST/      NET    PCT     YTD
                              CLOSE      CHG    CHG     CHG
 US crude                     94.66    -1.72  -1.8%    3.1%
 Brent crude                 106.11    -2.73  -2.5%   -4.5%
 Natural gas                  3.513   -0.068  -1.9%    4.8%
 
 US gold                    1313.20   -10.50  -0.8%  -21.6%
 Gold                       1314.56    -8.63  -0.6%  -21.5%
 US Copper                     3.30     0.00  -0.1%   -9.7%
 LME Copper                 7245.00    -4.00  -0.1%   -8.6%
 Dollar                      80.711    0.516   0.6%    5.1%
 CRB                        274.960   -2.903  -1.0%   -6.8%
 
 US corn                     427.25    -1.00  -0.2%  -38.8%
 US soybeans                1266.00   -14.25  -1.1%  -10.8%
 US wheat                    667.75     0.25   0.0%  -14.2%
 
 US Coffee                   105.55     0.15   0.1%  -26.6%
 US Cocoa                   2651.00   -26.00  -1.0%   18.6%
 US Sugar                     18.25    -0.07  -0.4%   -6.5%
 
 US silver                   21.837   21.618   1.6%  -27.8%
 US platinum                1451.90     3.50   0.0%   -5.6%
 US palladium                738.25     1.45   0.2%    5.0%

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