LONDON Nov 25 Turkey's stock market surged 1.6
percent on Monday after Iran sealed a historic nuclear deal with
the West read as reducing political risk in the oil-producing
Middle East and opening the door to more trade with one of the
region's biggest countries.
While emerging markets were generally firmer, political
tensions weighed on Thai and Ukrainian assets, and oil's 3
percent dip pushed the Russian rouble lower.
But for most companies the fall in oil prices represents a
cut in costs that should support their bottom lines and may aid
economic growth across the developing world.
The deal will give Iran relief from crippling economic
sanctions, opening the door for exports to Tehran.
The bulk of the restrictions on Iran's own oil exports and
investment in oil remain in place, but traders said it would at
least be easier for it to ship to existing customers with the
prospect of a freeing up of supplies if progress in relations
Turkish stocks soared to three-week highs while the
lira currency rose 0.5 percent and Turkish dollar bond
yield spreads over Treasuries dived by 10 basis points,
outperforming the broader bond index.
"The biggest beneficiary by far is the Turkish lira and not
just because of the amount of oil that it imports, but also it's
the most geographically close country to Iran and also the most
politically exposed to the situation," said Abbas Ameli-Renani,
a strategist at RBS.
Oil is the biggest contributor to Turkey's current account
deficit of over $50 billion and a $10 fall in oil prices cuts
the energy trade deficit by up to $5 billion.
Earlier in oil importing Asia, Indian shares rallied 2
percent, while Seoul and Taipei markets jumped 0.5-1.0
percent . The rupee firmed 0.5 percent
Israeli stocks were flat after hitting a record high after
the deal on Sunday, buoyed by hopes of an easing in
tensions in the region generally and shrugging off local
The shekel rose ahead of a central bank meeting which is
expected to keep interest rates steady. But the bank could
signal more intervention to weaken the shekel which has bucked
the weaker emerging markets trend to gain 5 percent
NOT ALL ROSY
While emerging equities overall rose 0.5 percent,
currencies were mostly flat, reflecting the view that the U.S.
Federal Reserve and its plans to unwind economic stimulus will
remain the main driver.
Gulf markets were flat, as investors weighed the prospect of
lower oil revenues for the region's other major producers. Saudi
stocks slid while even Dubai, which could
benefit from a rise in Iranian business, slipped.
Weaker oil prices also curbed equity gains in Russia and
pushed the rouble 0.4 percent lower .
An oil price fall, while positive for economies such as
China, India, South Africa and Turkey, may not significantly
change the picture of slowing growth in many of the sector's
The prospect of less Fed bond-buying, or "tapering" in the
market jargon, has rocked the sector over the past six months
and the risk of a cut in the flow of cheap dollars into the
developing world as soon as December is weighing on traders.
"After the U.S. debt ceiling saga was finished, people
effectively withdrew the possibility of a December tapering.
Almost the entire consensus had shifted to March, but in the
last week or two there have been whispers about the possibility
of a December taper," Ameli-Renani of RBS said.
The other dampener is politics, with the Thai baht at
11-week lows after more than 1000 protesters occupied the
finance ministry and 30,000 people marched to topple the
government. Thai stocks also touched
11-week lows, falling 1 percent at one point.
In emerging Europe, tens of thousands people rallied in Kiev
against the government's U-turn away from Europe and back
But yields on the dollar bond of Ukraine's state oil firm
Naftogaz stayed near three-week lows < UA045920712=> around 16
percent and has slipped more than 4 percentage points from
mid-November highs, reflecting belief that closer ties with
Russia would help the country avert near-term default.
Societe Generale advised buying Ukraine's 2017 dollar bond.
"Although (the move away from Europe) arguably damages the
long-term prospects of the country, the credit risk has
considerably been reduced," the bank said.
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