* Risk assets lifted by pick up in global manufacturing
* Dollar index off 4-week high, yen broadly softer
* Dollar still seen supported by prospect of end in Fed'S QE
* AUD rallies but wary before RBA meeting
By Hideyuki Sano
TOKYO, July 2 The dollar backed off from a
four-week high against a basket of currencies on Tuesday as risk
sentiment improved on stronger manufacturing data from major
global economies, outweighing fears of a reduction in U.S.
The dollar index stood at 83.056, almost flat on the
day but a tad below the four-week peak of 83.344 reached on
Friday, with support seen at 82.915, the bottom of the daily
"The market does not seem to be as vulnerable as it was a
month ago (to the prospects that the U.S. Federal Reserve will
withdraw stimulus). In a big picture, however, it is hard to
think the dollar will fall," said Katsunori Kitakura, associate
general manager of market making at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank.
The euro held firm at $1.3053 after a 0.4 percent
gain on Monday, keeping some distance from last
week's trough of $1.29845, its lowest since early June.
Nevertheless, it stayed below chart resistance at $1.3106,
the 100-day moving average, and the 200-day average at $1.3074.
The euro, also firmed against the yen to reach a
three-week high of 130.26, but it likewise faced resistance
around 130.45, the 61.8 percent retracement of its May 22 - June
Monday's manufacturing reports out of the euro zone, Japan,
and Britain all showed improvement, including encouraging
signs out of debt-burdened peripheral euro zone countries such
as Spain and Italy, helping risk currencies.
The U.S. ISM report rebounded from an unexpected contraction
in May, but hiring was the weakest in nearly four years. The
latter was important as the Fed has made unemployment a key
barometer for when it might start scaling back on asset buying.
Which is why the market is likely to become thinner and
thinner into the monthly payrolls report on Friday. A strong
reading would boost the dollar by fanning speculation about an
early paring back of the Fed's $85-billion-a-month bond-buying.
In contrast, the European Central Bank is likely to
emphasise at its monthly meeting on Thursday that the euro zone
economy still needs help.
The dollar held almost unchanged at 99.55 yen, near a
four-week high of 99.87 hit on Monday, though it has been unable
to break strong offers in the 99.90/100.00 area.
Although the yen is seen under pressure from the Bank of
Japan's aggressive monetary easing, traders say the market may
need a fresh impetus to sell the Japanese currency after its
steep decline in the past half year.
Concerns over a slowdown in China and other emerging markets
could sour investors' risk sentiment and spark another rally in
the yen, as it did in May, said Takako Masai, forex manager at
"I do not expect the yen to sharply weaken beyond 100 per
dollar," she said, noting that two-year yield gap between the
two currencies remained small by historical standards, despite
recent rise in U.S. bond yields.
The Australian dollar recouped some of its recent losses to
reach $0.9250, having hit a three-year low of $0.9110
on Monday. It faces a test later in the session as the Reserve
Bank of Australia (RBA) announces the outcome of its monthly
policy meeting at 0430 GMT.
A Reuters poll of 23 analysts found all but two expected
rates to stay steady at 2.75 percent, while the market
implies a one-in-four chance of a cut.
The focus will be on the statement to see if the central
bank keeps an implicit easing bias and for its take on the local
dollar. Should the RBA reiterate that the currency is still too
high, the market could take it as a green light to sell again.