* Dollar/yen retreats after hitting high of Y90.25
* Traders winding back yen selling ahead of BOJ decisions
* Markets position for aggressive action from BOJ
* Sterling hurt by weak British retail sales data
By Hideyuki Sano
TOKYO, Jan 21 The yen hit a 2-1/2 year low
against the dollar before quickly bouncing back on Monday as
traders braced for the outcome of a Bank of Japan meeting that
is expected see the central bank commit to an aggressive
Under political pressure to pull the country out of
deflation, the BOJ is expected to unveil a raft of policy steps
including further quantitative easing and setting a 2 percent
inflation target at its two-day meeting that ends on Tuesday.
The dollar rose to as high as 90.25 yen earlier on
Monday, the greenback's highest level against the Japanese
currency since June 2010, but had steadied to 89.53 yen by 0545
But as traders rushed to lock in gains as a precautionary
step before the BOJ's policy meeting ends, the dollar slipped to
89.60 yen, down 0.6 percent from late U.S. trade on Friday.
Since mid-November, the dollar has risen about 13 percent on
"From here we will probably see rallies sold into in
euro/yen, Aussie/yen etcetera as the street reduces short yen
positions into the BOJ meeting tomorrow," said Jeffrey Halley,
FX trader for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore.
The euro traded at 119.39 yen, off a 20-month
peak of 120.73 hit last week while the Australian dollar shed
0.5 percent to 94.19 yen, slipping from a four-year
high of 95.02 set Friday.
Minori Uchida, chief currency analyst at the Bank of
Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, said the market had almost fully factored
expectations for BOJ easing, unless the central bank sprang a
surprise on Tuesday.
"The dollar could rise to as high as 91 yen, but it will
eventually return to 80-85 yen," he added.
Market expectations on the BOJ meeting are unusually high.
Traders say financial markets are expecting a joint statement
with the government to target two percent inflation, an increase
in asset purchases with an open-ended commitment, and possibly
other measures such as cutting interest rates on excess
Data last Friday showed currency speculators slightly
trimmed their bets against the yen in the week to Jan. 15,
although they remained overwhelmingly negative on the currency.
Many market players remain pessimistic on the yen.
"We expect the door for further easing will likely be left
open irrespective of the outcome of BOJ policy meeting, either
explicitly by the BOJ or implicitly through government's plan to
nominate doves to replace the governor and deputy governors,"
analysts at Barclays Capital wrote in a client note dated Jan.
"Expectations of an aggressive monetary policy stance under
new BOJ leadership are likely to provide support for USD/JPY in
Traders said there has been strong demand for options
betting on further yen weakness, with one-month dollar/yen
implied volatility - a measure of expected price
movement - having risen to its highest since August 2011 on
The euro stood flat at $1.3325, having been capped by
the $1.3400 level in the past week and facing strong resistance
just under $1.3500.
The single currency showed muted response to a victory of
Germany's centre-left opposition in a regional vote in Lower
Saxony on Sunday. The euro crisis did not play much of a role in
Sterling touched a two-month low near $1.5840,
remaining under pressure after an unexpected fall in retail
sales last month raised the likelihood that Britain was slipping
into its third recession in four years. The
pound last stood at $1.5867, steady from late U.S. trade on
The Australian dollar, which came under a bit of profit
taking late last week, continued to see good support under
$1.0500. It was last at $1.0515, having bounced off a
1-1/2 week low of $1.0485 Friday.