* Asian shares in cautious mood after soft finish on Wall St
* US jobs report looms as big test of recovery hopes
* Euro lower as ECB steps up easing rhetoric, stops short of
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, April 4 Asian markets settled in for a
subdued session on Friday as investors counted down the hours to
the U.S. jobs report, while the euro nursed a grudge after the
European Central Bank opened the door to more aggressive easing,
albeit not just yet.
With virtually no major data of note due in Asia, the early
action was unsurprisingly tepid. Australia's share market was
flat, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares
outside Japan had barely budged.
Nikkei futures pointed to a modest early dip, though
a softer yen should provide some support. Wall Street was no
livelier, with the Dow ending flat and the S&P 500
off 0.11 percent.
The March U.S. payrolls report looms as a major test to the
argument that the economic weakness of January and February was
due to bad weather and the recovery is still on track.
Median forecasts are for a rise of 200,000 in payrolls,
though dealers say the whisper number in markets is now
something nearer 220,000. A result around there should reassure
the optimists and tend to underpin the dollar and stocks.
Perversely a much stronger read might not be so positive for
shares since it could reignite speculation of an earlier rate
hike from the Federal Reserve.
Likewise, a weak number would likely hurt the dollar and
boost Treasuries, but the impact on equities might be tempered
by expectations monetary policy would stay loose for longer.
Thursday's U.S. numbers were too mixed to draw any
conclusions on the outlook for policy.
The ISM measure of service sector activity bounced to 53.1
in March, and while it was slightly below forecasts it did show
a welcome recovery in employment intentions.
However, data also showed an unexpected widening of the U.S.
trade deficit which implied net exports were a much bigger drag
on the economy last quarter than first thought. Indeed, RBS
halved their forecast for growth to just 0.6 percent annualised.
NOT NOW, BUT MAYBE SOMETIME
In Europe, the ECB took no new action, as was widely
expected, but President Mario Draghi was at pains to emphasise
their willingness to act if inflation stayed low.
Crucially, Draghi declared the policy making council was
"unanimous" on using unconventional easing if needed. That
marked a major change as some countries, notably Germany, have
long opposed steps such as quantitative easing.
European bond yields fell as a result and even Greek 30-year
bond yields slipped 6 percent for the first time
since the global financial crisis.
That in turn dragged down the euro to a five-week trough at
$1.3698, and early Friday it was hovering at $1.3717.
The setback in the euro saw the dollar index climb to
its highest level since Feb 27. The greenback also extended
gains on the yen, popping above 104.00 for the first time
since Jan 23. It last traded at 103.90 yen.
In commodities markets, gold and copper prices were weighed
by the strength in the greenback. Spot gold was pinned at
$1,286.80 an ounce, and three-month copper on the London Metal
Exchange was down 0.5 percent at $6,642.
Brent crude rose above $106 a barrel a day after hitting a
five-month low, as doubts persisted that a lasting deal was
imminent to reopen vital Libyan oil ports.
Brent was at $106.15 a barrel after a bounce of 1.4
percent on Thursday, while U.S. crude added 4 cents to
$100.33 a barrel.
(Editing by Shri Navaratnam)