* China June HSBC PMI shows first expansion in 6 mths
* U.S. crude stocks seen down 2.3 mln barrels, products
* OPEC oil output slips in June on Iraq, averages 29.93 mln
* Iraq, Ukraine crises push up oil price forecasts
By Manash Goswami
SINGAPORE, July 1 Brent futures held above $112
a barrel on Tuesday as investor attention shifted back to demand
after China's factory growth rose to a six-month high, adding to
signs the economy of the world's second-biggest oil consumer is
Oil markets have for weeks been rattled by supply concerns
due to the Ukraine crisis and as a takeover of large areas of
Iraq by Sunni militants stoked fears of disruption in exports
from OPEC's second-biggest producer amid unsteady shipments from
Libya and others. As those fears recede somewhat, investors are
looking for fresh clues to gauge the direction of the market.
Brent crude gained 7 cents to $112.43 a barrel by
0238 GMT, after ending down 94 cents at its lowest settlement
since the rally spurred by the Iraqi crisis started on June 12.
U.S. oil rose 17 cents to $105.54 a barrel.
"Markets are looking for a catalyst to see where prices are
headed from here," said Ben Le Brun, a markets analyst at
OptionsXpress in Sydney.
"We certainly need to keep an eye on Iraq and see what is
happening in Ukraine. But overall economic data, including those
from the United States, seems to suggest the global economy is
China's official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at
51 in June, the National Bureau of Statistics said, quickening
from May's reading of 50.8 and in line with market expectations
on improving domestic and foreign demand.
Oil, particularly the U.S. benchmark, drew additional
support from forecasts U.S. commercial crude inventories dropped
2.3 million barrels in the week to June 27, while product
stockpiles rose, a preliminary Reuters poll showed. It also
estimated distillate stockpiles rose 600,000 barrels, while
gasoline inventories increased 800,000 barrels.
The survey was taken ahead of weekly inventory reports from
industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API) and from
the Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA).
A slide in OPEC's output also supported prices. The producer
group's output fell in June from May's three-month high, a
Reuters survey found, as fighting in Iraq closed its largest
refinery and technical problems slowed its southern exports,
underlining how unrest and outages in the Middle East and Africa
are taking their toll on OPEC supply.
Fears of disruption in Iraqi supplies and unrest in Ukraine
just as shipments from Libya and other producers remain unsteady
have kept oil at elevated levels despite a weak demand outlook.
A Reuters monthly poll of 26 analysts forecast Brent crude
oil would average $108.00 a barrel in 2014, the highest average
forecast of a Reuters poll so far this year and well above the
$105.90 average projected in last month's poll.
The North Sea benchmark has averaged $108.72 so far this
year, little changed from the average last year. U.S. crude,
would average $100.40 in 2014, above the $98.05 average in 2013.
WTI has averaged $100.72 so far this year.
Looking ahead, investors are now awaiting the crucial U.S.
jobs growth numbers due on Thursday. Nonfarm payrolls probably
increased 212,000, marking the fifth consecutive month of job
gains above 200,000, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
That, together with signs of a housing recovery, would cement
views that U.S. growth has rebounded.
(Reporting by Manash Goswami; Editing by Joseph Radford)