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NY cocoa rallies 9 pct in August; sugar, coffee down
August 31, 2012 / 7:06 PM / 5 years ago

NY cocoa rallies 9 pct in August; sugar, coffee down

Aug 31 (Reuters) - U.S. cocoa eked out further gains on
Friday and ended the month up more than 9 percent as speculative
buying continued amid fears of lower output from key grower
Ivory Coast.
    Sugar rose slightly in choppy trade on short-covering ahead
of the long U.S. Labor Day weekend and arabica coffee was
slightly higher. But both markets ended the month lower.

 2:51 PM      SETTLE    NET     PCT      LOW    HIGH  CURRENT
                       CHNG    CHNG                       VOL
 Sugar OCT     19.78   0.03    0.2%    19.62   19.99   44,137
 Sugar MAR     20.51   0.03    0.2%    20.36   20.66   28,201
 Cocoa SEP      2656     26    1.0%    2,650   2,673        9
 Cocoa DEC      2610     10    0.4%    2,588   2,647   17,019
 Coffee SEP   164.55   -0.2   -0.1%   162.80  165.20       19
 Coffee DEC   164.75   0.95    0.6%   162.50  167.45   11,373
 TOTAL MARKET              VOLUME          
                CURRENT   30D AVG  250D AVG
 ICE SUGAR       93,556   113,650    88,516
 ICE COCOA       37,129    23,774    19,013
 ICE COFFEE      15,613    24,502    19,769
        RAW SUGAR
    * ICE October futures settled at 19.78 cents per lb,
up 0.03 cent or 0.15 percent, in choppy trade that saw sweetener
prices slip in and out of negative territory.
    * Prices fell 13 percent in August and are down almost 20
percent since mid-July, teetering on the brink of bear
    * Traders attributed the small gains on Friday to short
covering with the market in oversold territory, while concerns
about the growing surplus due to Brazil's bumper crop continued
to weigh.
    * A double bottom at 19.67 cents should provide support and
the 20-day moving average at 20.29 cents is an intermediate
resistance level, Sucden's Nick Penney said.
    * With two weeks to go before London October sugar expiry
, expiry of October New York options and the beginning of
the official roll period, the market may wake up from the
general summer torpor which has afflicted the market for the
past three weeks, he said.
    * A weaker dollar also helped a little. The greenback fell
to three-month lows after Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke
reinforced expectations that the central bank will ease monetary
policy further to boost the world's largest economy in a
much-anticipated speech.
    * Fresh Talk that the Chinese government may step into to
buy sweetener also buoyed prices. 
    * Falling output in India due to the drought will not offset
Brazil's growing output, analysts cautioned.
    * The global sugar surplus will widen to 5.86 million tonnes
in the season running from October 2012 to September 2013 from
the prior season's surplus of 5.19 million tonnes, according to
the International Sugar Organization. 
    * Consultancy Kingsman cut its forecast for the 2012/13
global sugar surplus to 6.7 million tonnes from a previous
forecast surplus of 8.1 million tonnes, but the new estimate is
still well above last year's excess. 
    * Thai raw sugar premiums are likely to stay next week at
their highest in two years, fuel led by tight supply and rising
demand for the J-spec variety, while Tokyo rubber futures could
consolidate after recent losses, dealers said. 

    * Benchmark December arabica futures on ICE rose 0.01
cent or 0.82 percent to $1.6475 per lb.
    * Prices recovered from losses on technical buying after the
market touched intraday lows of $1.625.
    * Prices fell over 7 percent in August.
    * Trading volume sank to just over 15,000 lots, well below
30- and 250-day averages.
    * December coffee is biased to fall more to $1.6035 per lb,
as a rebound from this level may have ended. 
    * U.S. coffee importers said on Thursday that dealers in
Colombia expect their harvest to improve and have grown more
aggressive in efforts to sell beans, while Brazil's fine-cup
beans maintained their small premium over the benchmark futures

    * ICE December cocoa futures settled up $9 or 0.35
percent at $2,610 per tonne after hitting fresh nine-month highs
of $2,647 per tonne.
    * Cocoa has set new nine-month highs every day this week.
    * Prices have risen more than 9 percent in August and are in
overbought territory, leaving prices vulnerable to pressure when
U.S. markets reopen on Tuesday after the long Labor Day weekend,
traders said.
    * Speculative buying boosted volumes even though many
traders were already away for the holiday weekend. Close to
40,000 lots were traded, almost double the 250-day average and
56 percent above the 30-day average. 
    * Buying has been driven by concerns among speculative
investors that a lack of sunshine and cooler temperatures will
hurt the main crop from top grower Ivory Coast, but traders said
those fears are overdone.
    * The backwardation, in place for the past two weeks, was
steady at $46, reflecting a perception of nearby tightness. 
    * The thinly traded September contract rose 0.53
percent to $2,656 percent, also hitting fresh nine-month highs.
    * December cocoa is due for a correction as it has
approached a resistance at $2,635 per tonne. 
    * Cameroon's total 2011/12 cocoa production fell 8.33
percent to 220,000 tonnes compared with the previous season due
to a prolonged drought and attacks by pests, authorities in the
world's fifth biggest grower said on Friday. 
    * Price ratios of cocoa butter firmed this week on strong
demand as chocolate makers stepped in to buy and cover their
needs ahead of the holiday season. 

For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets:  
Sugar futures/spreads   Sugar cash prices  
Coffee futures/spreads  Coffee cash prices 
Cocoa futures/spreads   Cocoa cash prices    
All sugar news            All coffee news         
All cocoa news            All softs news           
All commodities news        Softs diary       
Weather news             Foreign exchange rates    

 (Reporting by Josephine Mason; Editing by Bob Burgdorfer)

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