Mexico peso dips on global bank fears, ratings eyed

Tue Nov 3, 2009 4:45pm EST
 
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MEXICO CITY, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Mexico's peso weakened on Tuesday over concerns about the global banking sector that boosted the U.S. dollar's safe-haven appeal while worries of a possible debt downgrade for Mexico loomed.

The peso MXN=MEX01 lost 0.36 percent to 13.26 per U.S. dollar, while the IPC stock index .MXX rose 0.84 percent to 28,886.53, catching up to gains made Monday on Wall Street when local markets were closed for a holiday.

Traders and analysts said the peso's losses were spurred by aversion to riskier assets, noting the peso's movements were tracking U.S. equities.

Investors cut back on riskier assets after poor quarterly results from UBS UBSN.VS and news that UK banks Lloyds (LLOY.L) and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L) would sell hundreds of branches and key businesses to appease regulators.

The peso recovered some of its lost ground as the S&P 500 .SPX clawed its way back to positive territory.

Traders said that tax hikes passed this weekend by Mexico's Congress to curb the country's dependence on waning oil exports may not be enough to stave off a downgrade of the country's debt by Wall Street ratings agencies.

"The tax plan did not come out so smoothly or as the president proposed, and there is some speculation that they will cut the country's debt rating," said Ramon Cordova, a trader at Base Internacional brokerage firm in Monterrey.

Many economists think Wall Street rating agencies will not be impressed by the plan that lawmakers finally approved, which makes public coffers depend more on high oil prices than a proposal from President Felipe Calderon.

But analysts said the currency was likely to be driven more in the coming sessions by external markets, as Wall Street ratings agencies have signaled the will wait to see the spending side of the 2010 budget, expected later this month, before making any decisions.

"The market is now looking beyond this. The reform failed to broaden the taxable base, but it was a good effort. The peso is going to be more sensitive to the U.S. economy and oil," said Benito Berber, an analyst at RBS in Stamford, Connecticut.

In stock trading, shares of America Movil (AMXL.MX) rose 2.5 percent to 29.88 pesos and cement giant Cemex (CMXCPO.MX) gained 2.25 percent to 14.08 pesos.

"We reacted positively to the gains on Monday in the United States. Also, you can not forget that we are coming back from a week of steep losses and the market had to give back a bit of a technical bounce," said a trader in Mexico City. (Reporting by Michael O'Boyle)

 

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