FXOUTLOOK-Dollar likely higher on momentum from jobs data

Fri Nov 6, 2009 12:16pm EST
 
[-] Text [+]

* Dollar likely higher in the first few days of next week

* U.S. payrolls data impact to carry through to mid week

* Little data in week ahead to drive trading

* Investors will rethink jobs data by mid week

By Nick Olivari

NEW YORK, Nov 6 (Reuters) - The dollar is likely to trade higher in the week ahead, with Friday's worse-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data for October seen as the driving force for currency markets at least until mid week.

The dollar eked out a gain against most major currencies other than the yen after the government said the unemployment rate rose to 10.2 percent, the highest since April 1983.

Concerns about the recovery in the world's largest economy typically send investors into the relative safe haven of U.S. government debt on the assumption U.S. taxpayers will always repay it.

That stokes demand for the dollars to buy that debt.

The continued negative trends in the U.S. employment data will keep pressure on the dollar. That pressure will likely continue until there is improvement on the road to recovery.

"A bad number and the dollar shows some strength next week," said Dan Cook, senior market analyst at IG Markets in Chicago.

Analysts cautioned that the effect of the jobs data will fade as the week moves closer to the most significant data of the week, the Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary November consumer sentiment survey on Friday.

"Traders will soon revert to the traditional view of employment as a lagging indicator and most other numbers are recovering," said Joseph Trevisani, senior market analyst at FX Solutions in Saddle River, New Jersey. "The overall picture is still recovering mildly and that economic sentiment should reassert by the latest Wednesday, and probably sooner."

If investors return to the belief the U.S. and global economies are recovering, they will swing back to increased risk tolerance, raising demand for higher-yielding assets and the currencies to buy them at the expense of the greenback.

For the week, the euro rose 0.9 percent against the dollar, despite a 0.2 percent drop on Friday EUR=. The dollar rose 0.2 percent against the yen, although most of the week's gains were lost on Friday in a 1 percent decline after the jobs number JPY=.

The dollar index, a measure of the dollar against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.7 percent for the week .DXY.  Continued...

 

Featured Broker sponsored link