RPT-PREVIEW-Thai Sept trade, output to confirm recovery signs

(Repeats story ahead of data due at 0730 GMT)

* What: Sept trade, manufacturing, Oct consumer prices

* When: Trade, output on Oct. 30 at 0730 GMT

* When: CPI on Nov. 2, tentatively at 0700 GMT

* Lower exports, output, but annual declines to slow
sharply

By Vithoon Amorn

BANGKOK, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Thailand's industrial output
and exports numbers for September are expected to offer more
evidence of economic recovery, with annual declines likely to
moderate substantially from the previous month.

Analysts polled by Reuters also expect the October consumer
price report to show the first annual rise this year.

The Bank of Thailand has left its key policy rate at a
record low 1.25 percent since April and is expected to start
tightening around mid-2010 to confront an expected rise in
inflation [ID:nBKK231779].

Last week's customs-based data showed exports fell 8.5
percent in September from a year before, far less than August's
18.4 percent, and central bank data this week should reflect
that improvement. [ID:nBKK366721]

"The economic outlook remains uncertain, though the bounce
in September exports offers encouragement and should be
supportive of further gains in manufacturing production,"
economist David Cohen of Action Economics said.

Poll details (pct change in September from year earlier
unless stated)

MPI Exp Imp Trade Bal C/A CPI(Oct)

$mln $mln Main
Core
Action Economics -2.5 -7.9 -17.9 2,070 1,400 0.3
-0.1
Capital Nomura -7.0 -8.0 -17.6 2,000 1,700 0.3
-0.1
DBS Bank -3.4 ~ ~ 2,000 1,600 ~
~
Kasikorn Res -5.9 -8.6 -17.5 1,890 1,640 0.6
0.0
Phatra Sec -4.0 -8.0 -17.4 2,000 1,800 0.7
-0.1
SCRI -1.5 -8.3 -17.2 1,914 1,415 0.5
0.0
Tisco Sec -2.8 -9.5 -18.5 1,902 1,499 0.8 0.0
----------------------------------------------------------------
- Median -3.4 -8.2 -17.6 2,000 1,600 0.6
-0.1

MPI = manufacturing production index

C/A = current account

CPI = consumer price index

~ Not available
Previous actual data:

MPI Exp Imp Trade C/A CPI
2009 $mln $mln Main
Core
Sep ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -1.0
-0.1
Aug -10.3 -17.9 -33.8 2,271 1,916 -1.0
-0.2
Jul -7.1 -25.7 -32.1 799 539 -4.4
-1.2
Jun -8.3 -26.4 -28.4 939 638 -4.0
-1.0
May -9.8 -26.5 -34.3 2,339 1,552 -3.3
-0.3
Apr -9.6 -25 2 -36.4 619 588 -0.9
1.0
Mar -14.5 -22.7 -35.1 2,165 2,566 -0.2
1.5
Feb -19.9 -11.1 -43.5 3,946 4,418 -0.1
1.8
Jan -21.2 -25.3 -36.5 1,688 2,289 -0.4
1.6
2008
Dec -18.6 -15.7 -8.8 496 91 0.4
1.8
Nov -7.7 -17.7 0.2 -896 -935 2.2
2.0
Oct 2.4 4.7 23.5 -964 -1,128 3.9
2.4
Sep 4.3 22.8 38.6 569 -275 6.0
2.6
Aug 7.8 17.5 26.9 -400 -577 6.4
2.7
Jul 11.1 47.5 53.4 -350 -493 9.2
3.7
Jun 11.3 31.5 31.6 1,298 707 8.9
3.6
May 9.0 22.1 15.7 1,268 506 7.6
2.8
Apr 10.0 28.7 42.1 -1,768 -1,856 6.2
2.1
Mar 9.2 16.2 32.1 342 791 5.3
1.7
Feb 15.0 18.5 32.9 -620 752 5.4
1.5
Jan 14.0 36.0 40.9 170 1,396 4.3
1.2
2007
Dec 11.7 23.9 10.3 1,575 2,418 3.2
1.2
Nov 12.1 24.5 17.1 1,964 2,647 3.0
1.1
Oct 12.6 27.9 22.2 1,440 1,876 2.5
1.0
Sep 8.9 12.6 9.3 1,927 1,812 2.1
0.8
Aug 10.2 18.4 12.1 973 735 1.1
0.7
Jul 7.7 6.6 3.8 41 382 1.7
0.8
Jun 4.0 18.6 3.9 1,099 1,216 1.9
0.7

~ Not available
($1 = 33.44 baht)
(Editing by Tomasz Janowski)