FACTBOX - Central banks look towards the exit

Fri Nov 6, 2009 2:58am EST
 
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 Nov 6 (Reuters) - Now that the global economy is showing signs
of recovery, markets are looking for clues when central banks
will begin to remove the extraordinary measures put in place
during the financial crisis to support liquidity.
 Australia and Norway have raised rates and Japan and India
have announced the withdrawal of some support. Other central
banks have been more cautious about talk of "exit strategies",
fearing a fresh downturn if they are hasty in withdrawing
support. [ID:nN29317790] [ID:nL5394422]
 The following shows the status of the special support
measures of seven major central banks.
 For a graphic charting world interest rates see
here
 ------------------------FEDERAL
RESERVE------------------------
 It has pledged to keep interest rates extraordinarily low
for "an extended period". Most analysts expect it to hold rates
near zero until mid-2010 or later. [ID:nN03503603]
 EXIT PLANS: Some emergency liquidity facilities, such as a
commercial paper funding facility, are winding down as markets
improve.
 On Oct. 29, the $300 billion Treasury programme ended,
[ID:nN30432296], and Fed purchases of agency mortgage-related
debt are due to be phased out by the end of March.
 In November, the Fed said it would buy $175 billion of
agency notes, lower than its original intention of up to $200
billion.
 It had $273 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities
and $28 billion of agency notes left to buy as of Nov. 4.
 ------------------------BANK OF
ENGLAND------------------------
 Bank rate has been at record low of 0.5 percent since
March, when central bank also said it would inject 75 billion
pounds into the recession-hit economy by buying bonds. It said
on Nov. 5 it would add 25 billion pounds to that amount.
 EXIT PLANS: The Conservative opposition has pressured the
government to decide how and when quantitative easing will end.
[ID:nLR84417]
 In October, BOE policymaker Adam Posen said the banking
system needed to be largely fixed before macroeconomic stimulus
is withdrawn. The alternative may result in a still-born
recovery or double-dip recession. [ID:nLQ256510]
[ID:nBOEQUOTES]
 On Nov 5, the BoE increased its asset purchase programme to
200 billion pounds from 175 billion pounds, but halved the pace
at which it buys the assets. It says the programme will take
three months to complete. [ID:nL5152809]
 ---------------------EUROPEAN CENTRAL
BANK---------------------
 Refinancing rate has been at record low of 1.0 percent
since May. ECB has flooded markets with liquidity through
long-term liquidity operations and cash lending for up to 12
months. It also announced a plan to buy 60 bln euro in bonds
over 12 months.
 EXIT PLANS: Its purchase programme ECB59 is on track to
finish by the end of June 2010. The ECB has not said if it will
withdraw extra liquidity or raise rates as a first step in its
exit strategy. Most money is on liquidity being mopped up
first.
 It has to decide in the next two months whether to extend
non-standard measures past the "end of 2009" expiry date.
 On Nov. 5, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said he
wouldn't dispel market expectations that the ECB is ready to
drop its one-year bank-lending facility. [ID:nL5403327]
 For graphic of ECB rate forecasts against market
expectations see
here
 -------------------------BANK OF
JAPAN-------------------------
 The BOJ has kept interest rates near zero since the end of
2008. It announced purchases of corporate bonds and commercial
paper from banks and the provision of low-interest loans to
support corporate funding.
 EXIT PLANS: On Oct. 30, the BOJ announced it was
withdrawing from credit markets, saying it will stop buying
corporate bonds and commercial paper at the end of 2009. It
extended low-interest loans by three months to March and
pledged to keep rates near zero for as long as necessary.
[ID:nT32693]
 -------------------------BANK OF
CANADA------------------------
 Pledged to keep policy rate at record low 0.25 percent
until July 2010, if inflation stays on track. [ID:nN20418132]
[ID:nOTW002424] Most market players see rates rising from
second half 2010.
 It has outlined plans for unconventional policies such as
"credit easing" and "quantitative easing", but has not engaged
in these measures. [ID:nN26213104] [ID:nN20426121]
 EXIT PLANS: It stopped two special lending facilities at
the end of October as funding conditions improved.
[ID:nN22363926]
 The third facility, term purchase and resale agreements, is
due to expire end Jan. 2010. It has C$27.4 billion
outstanding.
 ----------------------PEOPLE'S BANK OF
CHINA--------------------
 The PBOC cut 1-yr lending rate by 216 bps and 1-yr deposit
rate by 189 bps in Q4, 2008. It has pledged to support
stability of major reserve currencies and implement pro-growth
policies.
 EXIT PLANS: In July, the central bank signalled its
readiness to tighten liquidity conditions following a surge in
bank lending by guiding bill rates higher in open market
operations. After mostly conducting net fund injections to mid
October, the PBOC started to drain funds in weekly operations
to control liquidity.
 The ruling Communist Party said in September China would
continue with an "appropriately relaxed" monetary policy as the
economic recovery was still on shaky ground. [ID:nPEK147706]
Most economists doubt China will permit the yuan to start
climbing again until well into 2010.
 -------------------RESERVE BANK OF
AUSTRALIA-------------------
 Cut its cash rate to a record low of 3 percent. In Sept.
and Oct. 2008, it injected A$20 billion to banks in U.S. dollar
repurchase auctions. [ID:nSYU005217]
 EXIT PLANS: On Oct. 6, RBA became first G20 central bank to
raise rates since the crisis blew up. It raised rates again in
Nov. [ID:nSYD520296] [ID:nSYU008982] [ID:nSYD511876]
 A swap agreement with the U.S. Federal Reserve is operative
until Feb 2010, but the RBA has not auctioned U.S. dollars
since May and all outstanding U.S. dollar repos have matured.
 The RBA no longer offers 6- and 12-month funding on a daily
basis, although it remains willing to contract for such terms
when it suits its own liquidity management purpose.
 On Sept. 3, Treasurer Wayne Swan said stimulus will be
gradually withdrawn from last three months of 2009 through to
2011. [ID:nL365102]
 For a graphic of Australia central bank rate rises see
here
 ---------------------RESERVE BANK OF
INDIA---------------------
 The central bank cut its short-term lending rate
INREPO=ECI by 4.25 percentage points to 4.75 percent between
October and April. The RBI governor has pledged to maintain
"comfortable liquidity positions".
 EXIT PLANS: On Oct. 27, the RBI laid the groundwork for a
rise in rates by removing some emergency liquidity support,
which included raising the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) by
100 basis points to 25 percent, unwinding a cut made last
November. [ID:nDEL485971]
 ---------------------------------------------------------------
 Sources: Reuters
 (Reporting by Krista Hughes, Kristina Cooke, Louise Egan,
Anirban Nag, Wayne Cole and Alan Wheatley; Compiled by Gillian
Murdoch, Editing by Neil Fullick)



 

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