FACTBOX - Central banks look towards the exit
Nov 6 (Reuters) - Now that the global economy is showing signs of recovery, markets are looking for clues when central banks will begin to remove the extraordinary measures put in place during the financial crisis to support liquidity.
Australia and Norway have raised rates and Japan and India have announced the withdrawal of some support. Other central banks have been more cautious about talk of "exit strategies", fearing a fresh downturn if they are hasty in withdrawing support. [ID:nN29317790] [ID:nL5394422]
The following shows the status of the special support measures of seven major central banks.
For a graphic charting world interest rates see here ------------------------FEDERAL RESERVE------------------------
It has pledged to keep interest rates extraordinarily low for "an extended period". Most analysts expect it to hold rates near zero until mid-2010 or later. [ID:nN03503603]
EXIT PLANS: Some emergency liquidity facilities, such as a commercial paper funding facility, are winding down as markets improve.
On Oct. 29, the $300 billion Treasury programme ended, [ID:nN30432296], and Fed purchases of agency mortgage-related debt are due to be phased out by the end of March.
In November, the Fed said it would buy $175 billion of agency notes, lower than its original intention of up to $200 billion.
It had $273 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities and $28 billion of agency notes left to buy as of Nov. 4. ------------------------BANK OF ENGLAND------------------------
Bank rate has been at record low of 0.5 percent since March, when central bank also said it would inject 75 billion pounds into the recession-hit economy by buying bonds. It said on Nov. 5 it would add 25 billion pounds to that amount.
EXIT PLANS: The Conservative opposition has pressured the government to decide how and when quantitative easing will end. [ID:nLR84417]
In October, BOE policymaker Adam Posen said the banking system needed to be largely fixed before macroeconomic stimulus is withdrawn. The alternative may result in a still-born recovery or double-dip recession. [ID:nLQ256510] [ID:nBOEQUOTES]
On Nov 5, the BoE increased its asset purchase programme to 200 billion pounds from 175 billion pounds, but halved the pace at which it buys the assets. It says the programme will take three months to complete. [ID:nL5152809] ---------------------EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK---------------------
Refinancing rate has been at record low of 1.0 percent since May. ECB has flooded markets with liquidity through long-term liquidity operations and cash lending for up to 12 months. It also announced a plan to buy 60 bln euro in bonds over 12 months.
EXIT PLANS: Its purchase programme ECB59 is on track to finish by the end of June 2010. The ECB has not said if it will withdraw extra liquidity or raise rates as a first step in its exit strategy. Most money is on liquidity being mopped up first.
It has to decide in the next two months whether to extend non-standard measures past the "end of 2009" expiry date.
On Nov. 5, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said he wouldn't dispel market expectations that the ECB is ready to drop its one-year bank-lending facility. [ID:nL5403327]
For graphic of ECB rate forecasts against market expectations see here -------------------------BANK OF JAPAN-------------------------
The BOJ has kept interest rates near zero since the end of 2008. It announced purchases of corporate bonds and commercial paper from banks and the provision of low-interest loans to support corporate funding.
EXIT PLANS: On Oct. 30, the BOJ announced it was withdrawing from credit markets, saying it will stop buying corporate bonds and commercial paper at the end of 2009. It extended low-interest loans by three months to March and pledged to keep rates near zero for as long as necessary. [ID:nT32693] -------------------------BANK OF CANADA------------------------
Pledged to keep policy rate at record low 0.25 percent until July 2010, if inflation stays on track. [ID:nN20418132] [ID:nOTW002424] Most market players see rates rising from second half 2010.
It has outlined plans for unconventional policies such as "credit easing" and "quantitative easing", but has not engaged in these measures. [ID:nN26213104] [ID:nN20426121]
EXIT PLANS: It stopped two special lending facilities at the end of October as funding conditions improved. [ID:nN22363926]
The third facility, term purchase and resale agreements, is due to expire end Jan. 2010. It has C$27.4 billion outstanding. ----------------------PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA--------------------
The PBOC cut 1-yr lending rate by 216 bps and 1-yr deposit rate by 189 bps in Q4, 2008. It has pledged to support stability of major reserve currencies and implement pro-growth policies.
EXIT PLANS: In July, the central bank signalled its readiness to tighten liquidity conditions following a surge in bank lending by guiding bill rates higher in open market operations. After mostly conducting net fund injections to mid October, the PBOC started to drain funds in weekly operations to control liquidity.
The ruling Communist Party said in September China would continue with an "appropriately relaxed" monetary policy as the economic recovery was still on shaky ground. [ID:nPEK147706] Most economists doubt China will permit the yuan to start climbing again until well into 2010. -------------------RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA-------------------
Cut its cash rate to a record low of 3 percent. In Sept. and Oct. 2008, it injected A$20 billion to banks in U.S. dollar repurchase auctions. [ID:nSYU005217]
EXIT PLANS: On Oct. 6, RBA became first G20 central bank to raise rates since the crisis blew up. It raised rates again in Nov. [ID:nSYD520296] [ID:nSYU008982] [ID:nSYD511876]
A swap agreement with the U.S. Federal Reserve is operative until Feb 2010, but the RBA has not auctioned U.S. dollars since May and all outstanding U.S. dollar repos have matured.
The RBA no longer offers 6- and 12-month funding on a daily basis, although it remains willing to contract for such terms when it suits its own liquidity management purpose.
On Sept. 3, Treasurer Wayne Swan said stimulus will be gradually withdrawn from last three months of 2009 through to 2011. [ID:nL365102]
For a graphic of Australia central bank rate rises see here ---------------------RESERVE BANK OF INDIA---------------------
The central bank cut its short-term lending rate INREPO=ECI by 4.25 percentage points to 4.75 percent between October and April. The RBI governor has pledged to maintain "comfortable liquidity positions".
EXIT PLANS: On Oct. 27, the RBI laid the groundwork for a rise in rates by removing some emergency liquidity support, which included raising the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) by 100 basis points to 25 percent, unwinding a cut made last November. [ID:nDEL485971] ---------------------------------------------------------------
Sources: Reuters
(Reporting by Krista Hughes, Kristina Cooke, Louise Egan, Anirban Nag, Wayne Cole and Alan Wheatley; Compiled by Gillian Murdoch, Editing by Neil Fullick)
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