FOREX-Dollar holds ground before jobs data, Aussie firms

Fri Nov 6, 2009 12:05am EST
 
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* Dollar holds ground before US non-farm payrolls at 1330 GMT

* Aussie firm after upbeat RBA policy statement

By Shinichi Saoshiro

TOKYO, Nov 6 (Reuters) - The dollar sat tight as investors held off taking new positions before a U.S. jobs report likely to signal the strength of economic recovery, while the Australian dollar firmed after its central bank foresaw gradual rate rises.

A Reuters poll showed median forecasts are for 175,000 U.S. jobs being shed in October, slower than the 263,000 lost in September, with the jobless rate rising to 9.9 percent. ECONUS

If the numbers disappoint, investors are likely to turn to the dollar and the yen JPY=, while a strong report could see high-yielding currencies gain, although analysts are doubtful investor risk appetite will be quite as bullish as it had been earlier this year.

"If the number is as expected, it may continue to favour risk-on trades," said Koji Fukaya, a senior currency strategist at Deutsche Securities in Tokyo.

"But the Fed has already shown commitment to an easy policy for an extended period while upgrading its economic outlook, so a jobs number in line with expectations will only reaffirm its view."

An index that measures the dollar against six other major currencies was unchanged from late U.S. trade at 75.700 =USD, while the euro, the biggest component of that basket, was also steady at $1.4875 EUR=.

The euro held steady near 135 yen EURJPY=R, having gained nearly 0.1 percent on Thursday. The yen JPY= was unchanged at 90.75 per dollar JPY= and traders said Japanese exporters were said to be ready to sell into moves above 91 and 135, respectively.

Higher-yielders the New Zealand and the Australian dollars have gained more than 20 percent and 30 percent, respectively, against the dollar this year, with low U.S. rates turning the greenback into a funding currency to buy assets with higher returns.

Amber Rabinov, a market economist at ANZ in Melbourne, said a strong jobs number could lift the two currencies but warned profit-taking would weigh on any sudden gains.

"We don't think there is much room for them to rally as participants are very long on pro-cyclical currencies like the Aussie and the Kiwi," she said.

The Australian dollar AUD=D4 rose to $0.9130 from just below $0.9100 in late New York trade on Thursday, after the central bank said rates would likely have to rise gradually as it sharply upgraded forecasts of economic growth for next year. [ID:nSYD171144]

The central bank raised rates for the second month in a row this week but the market now sees less than a 50 percent chance of another increase as soon as December. RBAWATCH

The Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers start a meeting in Scotland on Friday seeking to firm up a plan to rebalance the world economy.  Continued...

 

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