UPDATE 2-Fr Telecom sees near 100,000 iPhone sales by year end

Analysts said the jury is still out over whether the iPhone will take off in Europe. "There's an irrational side to a decision to buy an Apple trademarked iPhone which makes it difficult to predict sales," said Gontran Filet, a consultant with telecoms industry think-tank Idate.

Gartner's Milanesi said the locked-in contract model may eventually need to be dropped because it is undermined by the obligation to offer an unlocked phone as well.

In the long term, Apple may have to abandon the exclusive contracts because the situation in France and in Germany will put pressure on them, she said. (Additional reporting by Dominique Vidalon and Andrew Callus in Paris, Tarmo Virki in Helsinki, Nikola Rotscheroth in Duesseldorf and Georgina Prodhan in Frankfurt; Editing by Quentin Bryar and David Holmes)