INSTANT VIEW: Reaction to jobless, durables data

Thu Apr 24, 2008 9:16am EDT
 
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - The number of U.S. workers filing initial claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell by 33,000 last week, the Labor Department said on Thursday, though the number of workers remaining on jobless benefits continued at a high level.

New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods unexpectedly fell 0.3 percent in March after transportation slumped, but a key gauge of corporate investment appetite held steady, government data on Thursday showed.

KEY POINTS:

JOBLESS CLAIMS: * Initial claims for jobless benefits decreased to a seasonally adjusted 342,000 in the week ended April 19, from a revised 375,000 in the prior week. * Analysts polled by Reuters had expected initial claims to edge up to 375,000 from an initially reported 372,000 in the April 12 week. * The four-week moving average of new claims, a more reliable guide to underlying labor trends because it irons out weekly fluctuations, fell last week to 369,500 from 376,750. * The number of workers remaining on jobless benefits eased to 2.934 million for the week ended April 12, the most recent week these figures were available, from 2.999 million the prior week. But it was the fourth straight week in which continuing claims remained above 2.9 million. * Analysts were expecting continuing claims to hit 3 million during the April 12 week.

DURABLE GOODS: * The Commerce Department said new orders excluding transportation rose 1.5 percent, while transportation equipment fell 4.6 percent, including a matching drop in motor vehicles and parts which was the steepest drop since last August. * Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending, was unchanged as forecast and the previous month was revised up to show a 2.0 percent decline, from a 2.4 percent drop reported before. * Analysts polled by Reuters had expected overall orders to be unchanged in March from a revised 0.9 percent fall the month before, previously estimated as a 1.1 percent drop. They forecast orders ex-transportation to rise 0.4 percent.

COMMENTS:

BRIAN DOLAN, HEAD OF RESEARCH, FOREX.COM, BEDMINSTER, NEW

JERSEY:

"The data is pretty clearly dollar positive and we're coming off some weaker European data today already. The durable goods ex-transport was better than expected, and in particular, the jobless claims decline is suggestive that the U.S. economy might be stabilizing a bit. True, it's only one week's data, but the continuing claims dropped off sharply too. For the euro, the big level to watch is $1.5690-$1.57, as there's trendline support there. Now that we tried and failed to stay above $1.60, it looks like we're coming back to the bottom. For dollar-yen, 104 is the next hurdle, and if we get above that, sights will be set on 105."

RICHARD DEKASER, CHIEF ECONOMIST, NATIONAL CITY CORP.,

CLEVELAND:

DURABLE GOODS: "We continued to see weakness here. It reflects weakened business sentiments, which are in recessionary levels. There is continued reluctance to make large capital investments. We are not seeing the benefits from accelerated depreciation; it should be evident in the April if it's going to show up."

JOBLESS CLAIMS: "We see a little better news here than feared. The American Axle strike continues to have a ripple effect in the auto industry. The labor market on balance continued to be weak. April nonfarm payrolls could come in flat which is better than what've seen in the past three months."

MICHAEL DARDA, CHIEF ECONOMIST AT MKM PARTNERS LLC,  Continued...

 

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