FED FOCUS-Fed tries to ease credit, hold line on rates

Thu Sep 18, 2008 3:36pm EDT
 
[-] Text [+]

By Ros Krasny

CHICAGO, Sept 18 (Reuters) - As the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks pump massive liquidity into a frozen global financial system, an emergency interest U.S. rate cut remains a last-ditch outcome.

With the focus on crisis management, and at a time a string of rescue moves has run down the Fed's reserves to critical levels, policy-makers are grasping for ways to expand their capacity to support money markets while keeping those efforts apart from interest-rate policy.

On Thursday, the world's top central banks turned the funding taps open wide. The Fed increased currency swap lines with other central banks by $180 billion to help them meet demand for U.S. dollars in their markets and ease extreme funding strains in the global banking system.

That came less than 48 hours after the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady. The Fed announced its decision in a statement that stayed tough on inflation and offered only a nod to extreme credit market disruptions.

"The Fed (this week) was trying to separate liquidity additions from rate policy," said Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut.

But just hours after the Fed decided to hold rates steady, it agreed to rescue ailing insurance giant American International Group (AIG.N) with a loan of $85 billion, creating another seismic shift in the financial landscape.

The Fed's overnight announcement on Thursday that it was increasing swap lines with the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank and setting up such lines with other central banks will probably not be its last emergency move.

"More actions could be forthcoming in the next few days and weeks, including the possibility of a rate cut ... and almost certainly more special bill auctions by the (U.S.) Treasury," said economists at Goldman Sachs. In a highly unusual move, the Treasury on Wednesday began to auction off U.S. government debt to shore up the Fed's now-tattered balance sheet.

Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans could lay out some options on Friday, when he speaks in Zurich on "Challenges that the Recent Financial Market Turmoil Place on our Macroeconomic Toolkit."

BALANCE SHEET GETS LEAN

The need for the special Treasury auctions has became urgent after the Fed ran down its balance sheet with a series of costly rescue moves, culminating in the AIG deal.

"The Fed is very close to using up its lending capacity." That's unprecedented," said Marvin Goodfriend, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University's Tepper School of Business and former monetary policy adviser at the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank.

The special auctions were established at the request of the Fed. Already, the Treasury has sold off $100 billion in bills under the program and has announced sales of $100 billion more.

"Short of running up against a debt ceiling ... we know of no limit to the amount that Treasury could raise through this process," the Goldman economists said. The Treasury could issue more than $1 trillion in additional debt before it hits the congressionally set debt limit.

Fed holdings of Treasury securities were $478 billion as of Sept. 10, down from $741 billion at the start of the year after a series of emergency operations to keep credit flowing.  Continued...

 

Green Shoots / Brown Weeds

Image by Flickr user gumdropgas (http://www.flickr.com/photos/sidspage/)
Jobless claims drop steeply

The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits fell sharply last week, although the data was distorted by an unusual pattern of layoffs in the automotive industry.  Full Article 

Image by Flickr user Noël Zia Lee (http://www.flickr.com/photos/noelzialee/)
Bad weather hurts retail sales

Sales fell at many U.S. apparel retailers and warehouse club stores in June as the weak economy and cool, rainy weather dashed interest in summer shopping for consumers across the country.  Full Article 

 
Join the Reuters Consumer Insight Panel and help us get to know you better

Join the Reuters Consumer Insight Panel and help us get to know you better