US consumer sentiment falls to 28-year low - UMich

Wed Nov 26, 2008 9:59am EST
 
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NEW YORK, Nov 26 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence fell to a 28-year low in November as mounting job losses, falling incomes and tumbling household wealth battered sentiment, a survey showed on Wednesday.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its final index reading of confidence for November fell to 55.3 from October's 57.6.

The index came in well below economists' expectations of 57.7, according to the median of forecasts in a Reuters poll, and deteriorated sharply since the middle of the month, when lower gasoline prices had cheered many consumers.

"Consumer confidence fell in the last half of November due to mounting job losses, falling incomes and the evaporation of household wealth," the report said.

"Consumers were unanimous in their recognition that the economy was in recession, and nearly three-in-four expected the recession to deepen in the months ahead."

Forecasts for the final reading ranged from 54.6 to 58.5.

The preliminary index reading, released on November 14, was 57.9. The University of Michigan confidence index dates back to 1952. Its record low was 51.7, which it hit in May 1980.

Though the main index remains slightly above that record low, consumers rated current conditions the lowest ever.

The outlook for the future was not bright, with the index of consumer expectations falling to its lowest since July this year.

If there was a silver lining to the report it was a small one. The bleak economic showed inflation expectations tumbled, which should allow the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low to spur recovery, though it may also raise fears of a debilitating downward price spiral of deflation.

One-year inflation expectations tumbled in November to 2.9 percent from 3.9 percent in October. This is the lowest since December 2006, when they were also at 2.9 percent.

The drop in one-year inflation expectations was the largest one-month fall since November 2005. The report also said 17 percent of respondents expected deflation in the year ahead.

(Reporting by Burton Frierson, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

 
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