Swiss growth could fall below 1 pct in'09-minister

Sat Oct 11, 2008 7:30pm EDT
 
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WASHINGTON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Swiss economic growth may slow to 1 percent or even lower next year, Economy Minister Doris Leuthard said on Saturday, adding she could not rule out a technical recession of two quarters of economic contraction.

On Oct. 2, the Swiss economy ministry had forecast that 2009 growth would slow to 1.3 percent in 2009 from an expected 1.9 percent this year and from 3.3 percent in 2007.

"Last week everybody recognized, especially in Europe, that the real economy is affected (by the financial market crisis) and this will mean that we will come down to 1 percent or even below. We don't know yet," Leuthard told a news conference.

But she said that the positive news was that Swiss unemployment in September was still at 2.4 percent and would not rise much next year.

"Even with this deceleration of our economy we probably will go up in 2009 to 2.7-2.8 percent. That's the forecast for today. That's why we don't talk about a recession in Switzerland," she said.

"A technical recession -- maybe -- because as soon as we have two quarters of negative growth we can talk of a technical recession, but not a recession, which would include the employment market," Leuthard said.

Swiss central bank governor Jean-Pierre Roth, also present, confirmed the bank's forecast for Switzerland's economy to expand in the range of 1.5 percent and 2.0 percent this year, and reiterated that 2009 would be weaker, but he would not give a number. (Reporting by Jan Strupczewski; Editing by Tim Ahmann)

 
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