* 2012 inflation outlook jumps to 3.81 percent from 3.65
* Growth outlook this year steady, 2013 estimates slip
* Manufacturing PMI edges up slightly in June
MEXICO CITY, July 2 Analysts watching Mexico's
economy sharply lifted their forecast for inflation this year,
the central bank said on Monday, following a sharp slump in the
The central bank's poll of analysts showed they expected a
3.81 percent rise in consumer prices this year, up from a 3.65
percent increase expected in the last monthly poll.
Mexico's annual inflation rate hit a 1-1/2-year high of 4.30
percent in early June, above the central bank's ceiling of 4
But the Banco de Mexico is seen keeping interest rates
steady at 4.5 percent into mid-2014 as it eyes the risk of
slowing growth, which would cool price pressures..
The economy accelerated at the start of 2012 but data
suggest growth easing in the second quarter. Manufacturing
activity picked up in June after a dip the previous month, but
remains below April levels, a separate survey showed.
A sharp slump in the peso during the second quarter raised
concerns among policymakers that higher import prices could push
up inflation further.
The currency has reversed much of its slide, bouncing back
about 9 percent from a three-year low hit on June 1. But
concerns of slowing global growth could keep the currency
pressured this year.
Analysts saw a weaker peso by year-end, calling for a rate
of 13.22 per dollar versus 13.02 per dollar in the last poll.
Inflation estimates for 2013 ticked up to 3.69 percent from
The poll showed forecasts for 3.72 percent economic growth
this year, unchanged from the last poll, and analysts trimmed
their growth forecast for 2013 from 3.50 percent to 3.42
Slowing job growth in the United States could crimp the
demand for Mexican exports going forward, but Mexico's central
bank chief said last month the economy could still grow nearly 4
percent this year if U.S. growth holds up.
The HSBC Mexico Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index
(PMI) rose to 55.9 in June from 55.2 in May, after
adjusting for seasonal variation. A reading above 50 in the
survey, which measures business conditions in the industrial
sector, indicates the pace of growth from the previous month.
Total new orders rose for the month, continuing an unbroken
trend since the series began in April 2011 and new export orders
increased as well.
"The manufacturing sector ... continues to show resilience to
external headwinds," Sergio Martin, chief economist at HSBC in
Mexico said in a statement.