Colombian rocker Juanes set to rule Latin Grammys

By Leila Cobo

MIAMI (Billboard) - Now that voting has closed, it's time to predict the winners of the Latin Grammy Awards, which will take place in Houston on Thursday.

RECORD OF THE YEAR:

Even if Colombian rocker Juanes' "Me Enamora" hadn't spent 20 weeks at No. 1 on Billboard's Hot Latin Songs chart, it would still be the only track every voter has heard. Nothing beats an educated decision, and the song itself is nothing to scoff at. Fans of more traditional Latin pop might back the Andrea Bocelli/Laura Pausini duet, "Vive Ya! (Vivere)," because of the production work of Humberto Gatica and Tony Renis. But it probably won't be enough to top the "Me Enamora" production and engineering team of Juanes, Gustavo Santaolalla, Anibal Kerpel and Thom Russo.

BEST NEW ARTIST:

In a field dominated by women, this contest is between two commercial successes: Puerto Rico's Kany Garcia and Mexico's Ximena Sarinana. The outcome will be watched closely: Sarinana has been promoted mostly in Mexico, while Garcia has been pushed primarily on the East Coast and in Puerto Rico, so the win could indicate which voting faction carries more clout. Both performers have artistic merit and unconditional label support -- not a common combination. Special kudos to Colombia's Monica Giraldo for snaring a surprise nomination for "Todo Da Vueltas," a gem of an album.

ALBUM OF THE YEAR:

Although Mexican rock act Cafe Tacvba received the most nominations this year, enough people probably haven't heard the band's album, "Sino," for it to win in this category. Look gfor the prize to go to Juanes' "La Vida . . . Es Un Ratico," a well-rounded production with rhythm, integrity and a purpose. The dark horse here could be man of the hour Vicente Fernandez with his powerful and successful "Para Siempre." The fact that Joan Sebastian wrote all the songs and co-produced it gives the Fernandez album clout.

SONG OF THE YEAR:

Given its runaway chart success in the United States and throughout Latin America, the winner has to be Juanes' "Me Enamora." Anything else would be a surprise.

BEST URBAN MUSIC ALBUM:

Tego Calderon will win for "El Abayarde Contra-Ataca" since he's a widely respected rapper with depth. Most of the remaining nominees are pure reggaeton and the Latin Recording Academy has shown that it's no fan of that genre. But the most deserving nominee is Wisin & Yandel's "Los Extraterrestres," not because it sold well, but because it's a superb album full of hits.

BEST ALTERNATIVE MUSIC ALBUM:

Forget the rock categories; the artists and albums we really care about are here, making this the most closely watched category this year. Cafe Tacvba's "Sino" and Julieta Venegas' lovely "MTV Unplugged" album are certainly contenders. But the best bet is "La Radiolina" by pioneering Latin alternative artist Manu Chao, who's made a beautiful and edgy album.

BEST BANDA ALBUM:

Despite heavy-duty competition from Banda El Recodo's "Que Bonito . . . Es Lo Bonito," the winner will be Joan Sebastian's "No Es De Madera," a creative peak for the beloved veteran.