Zimbabwe's neighbors hope poll brings change

By Phumza Macanda - Analysis

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Whatever public words of support Zimbabwe's government wins from its neighbors, they will be hoping this week's election puts southern Africa's trouble maker on a path to change.

Zimbabwe is holding back regional growth and economic integration, spilling millions of economic migrants over its borders, straining regional diplomacy and making the whole neighborhood look bad for failing to end the crisis.

Once one of the region's most dynamic economies, President Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe has gone from helping drive the agenda at the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) to consistently topping the agenda as the problem child.

"SADC countries have had to spend a lot of energy doing two things: finding a solution to the Zimbabwe situation and trying to anticipate the impact of the meltdown on themselves," said Siphamandla Zondi, program director at the Institute for Global Dialogue.

"That is the energy that should have been used to build and to create things we need to go forward," Zondi said.

Mugabe faces the toughest challenge to his 28 years in power because of the economic cataclysm and ruling party defections, but opposition divisions and the hold he has over the state apparatus mean he is still hard to beat.

While the region certainly does not want a result that pushes Zimbabwe to violence -- Mugabe has warned rivals against Kenya-style protests if they dispute the outcome -- nobody wants a continuation of the current decline either.

If Mugabe's challengers, ex-ally Simba Makoni and long- term rival Morgan Tsvangirai, make serious inroads against the ruling ZANU-PF party, it could open the way for policy reform and help end the Mugabe era even if he wins, Zondi said.

REFORM?

"It might propel the ruling ZANU-PF towards some form of internal renewal and that could mean allowing Mugabe to retire and inject new blood," he said, suggesting the party might then be ready to listen to advice from the region and further afield.

"People are not even focused on democracy any more... All they want is normality," he said.

Southern African countries have generally taken a soft approach to Mugabe, a hero of the struggle for independence in Africa. The quiet diplomacy has contrasted with Western demands for rapid reform, but it has also delivered limited results.

Zimbabwe's economic woes have left shelves empty at home, the currency all but worthless and inflation at around 100,000 percent -- the world's highest.

Farms and industry that once exported to neighboring countries, helping drive their own growth, are ruined. Mugabe's critics in particular blame his policy of seizing white-owned farms to give to landless blacks.

"For smaller countries that relied heavily on Zimbabwe imports, taking Zimbabwe out of the food picture has been devastating," said Tony Twine, economist at Econometrix.