Zimbabwe crisis taints Mbeki, boosts Zuma

By Michael Georgy - Analysis

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South African President Thabo Mbeki's refusal to take a tougher line on neighboring Zimbabwe has further damaged his credibility and handed rival Jacob Zuma another opening to improve his image.

Regional leaders last year mandated Mbeki to lead mediation between President Robert Mugabe and the opposition but his insistence on "quiet diplomacy" failed to make headway.

As a post-election deadlock deepened in Zimbabwe following the failure to release results from the March 29 presidential poll, Mbeki continued to downplay the situation, saying there was no crisis.

His steadfast refusal to change his stance has brought a flood of criticism and given Zuma a golden chance to strengthen his image abroad, where his corruption trial next August has raised concerns about the future direction of South Africa.

If Zuma can survive the case, he is frontrunner to succeed Mbeki in 2009, having already ousted him last December as leader of the ruling African National Congress.

"If Jacob Zuma could broker some kind of resolution in Zimbabwe that the international community, particularly Britain and the United States would be happy with, that would probably go a long way to alleviate concerns that other countries have regarding Jacob Zuma's own leadership ability," said analyst Mark Schroeder.

Analysts say Zuma may be angling to become a leading mediator in the crisis to boost his international capital.

In his toughest statement yet on Zimbabwe, Zuma expressed apprehension on Wednesday at the post-election deadlock and its impact on the neighboring region, and criticized the delay in issuing results that Mbeki has defended.

Mbeki is already seen by critics as a lame duck president and has been battered on a range of issues, where his reluctance to change direction has been similar to his stance on Zimbabwe.

He has presided over an economic boom but crime and poverty are still rife. A major crisis over lack of power generation has raised fears about the possible impact on the broader economy.

Critics blame Mbeki for ignoring warnings years ago that the country lacked the power capacity to fuel a booming economy.

He also infuriated AIDS activists for years by questioning accepted AIDS science while the disease killed about 1,000 people a day and by delaying the wide distribution of anti-retroviral drugs.

AFRICAN CHAMPION

Zuma, without Mbeki's education and intellect but oozing with the charisma he lacks, portrays himself both as a man of the people and someone who can keep foreign investment flowing into Africa's biggest economy.

His decisive response to the Zimbabwe issue, backed by the ANC and his trade union allies, has raised his stature.