SCENARIOS: Is Sri Lanka about to finish off the Tamil Tigers?

By C. Bryson Hull

(Reuters) - Sri Lankan troops on Friday handed the Tamil Tiger rebels their second major defeat in a week, capturing the strategic Elephant Pass, the president said.

That comes a week after the army drove the separatist guerrillas from their self-proclaimed capital of Kilinochchi, an event that had many asking if the quarter-century war is over. Not yet, but here are some scenarios of what could happen:

FONSEKA'S MARCH TO THE SEA:

With Kilinochchi and the entire Jaffna Peninsula now in army hands, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) are confined to a fast-shrinking wedge of northeastern Sri Lanka of about 330 square km (127 sq miles).

The military and analysts say the Tigers are shifting their heavy weapons and toughest fighters to the eastern port of Mullaittivu for a final stand.

With Elephant Pass back in army hands, the A-9 highway is now open for a mechanized division to join the units converging on Mullaittivu from all sides.

Much as U.S. civil war Major-General William Tecumseh Sherman made the Confederate army surrender by forcing them to all but jump in the sea at Savannah, Georgia, army commander Lt-Gen. Sarath Fonseka plans to do the same to the Tigers at Mullaittivu.

Since the Tigers wear vials of cyanide around their neck in case of capture, surrender seems unlikely.

ARE THE TIGERS NOW TOOTHLESS?

Many analysts say the rebels are down to around 2,000 capable fighters and have little future as a conventional force.

The military is now much better equipped and trained than in the past, has President Mahinda Rajapaksa's full backing and experienced, confident leadership in the form of his brother, Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajaksa, and Fonseka. Both are combat veterans who fought on each other's flank earlier in the war.

The LTTE still can carry out suicide bombings in the capital Colombo, and is blamed for one right after Kilinochchi's fall.

Many fear more of the same. Fonseka has said he expects the hardest core of the Tigers to go underground and conduct hit-and-run attacks once the war nears its end. He also said the army is ready for that.

WHAT ABOUT CIVILIANS IN THE WAR ZONE?

Aid agencies estimate there are around 230,000 Tamil refugees in the shrinking war zone who are suffering without much shelter.