Iran's fudge sets up slow motion nuclear drama

By Edmund Blair - Analysis

TEHRAN (Reuters) - An Iranian official outlined the script in June. Iran would not give a 'yes' or 'no' answer but would send a "discussable response" to an offer by world powers to end a dispute over its nuclear ambitions.

That script has been followed to the letter, to the frustration of the West, which has written its own plot for the diplomatic theatre being played out -- more U.N. sanctions if Iran does not halt atomic work they fear is to make bombs.

But from now on, the drama may unfold in slow motion.

A Western diplomat said the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany agreed after meeting Iran's chief nuclear negotiator in Geneva on July 19 that any answer on the incentives offer other than a clear 'yes' would be taken as a 'no'.

European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana, representing the six, had offered a freeze-for-freeze idea -- no more U.N. sanctions in return for no more Iranian centrifuges -- to tempt Tehran into formal talks. Iran did not say 'yes'.

But steps on the next round of U.N. sanctions are unlikely to start till September and will have to get past Russia and China which have watered down the three resolutions since 2006.

Even if Tehran continues building its uranium enrichment capacity at full speed -- which it insists is for peaceful electricity generation -- it could take many months to have another sanctions resolution adopted, some diplomats said. The EU has taken five months to implement the last one in EU law.

Israel, the country which says it has most to fear from a nuclear Iran, is showing signs of growing impatience.

"(Iranian leaders) are engaged in delaying tactics," said one Iranian analyst. "It is a dangerous game they are playing."

INSURANCE

Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz, a former general who is campaigning to become head of his party and prime minister, has said war with Iran could be "unavoidable". Other Israelis have said strikes are an option.

Experts say Israel, widely assumed to be the Middle East's sole atomic power, may not be able to knock out all Iran's dispersed nuclear sites, but that this may not stop it trying.

"One thing I know about the U.S.-Israeli relationship is the Israelis don't ask for permission to do things," a senior Western diplomat in Iran said of the chance of Israeli strikes.

An EU official said Europeans had hoped Iran might accept a freeze to "give them insurance against getting bombed" before the departure of President George W. Bush, who has not ruled out military action. It might also have tied a successor into talks.

Spurning that chance may reflect Iran's confidence that the risk of a U.S. attack under Bush is slight. Iranian commanders often say Israel would not dare launch raids.