Any U.S. blunder in Pakistan could aid al Qaeda

By Simon Cameron-Moore - Analysis

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Osama bin Laden and Ayman al Zawahri might allow themselves a mirthless smile at the thought of U.S. President George Bush unleashing U.S. commando raids in Pakistan without Islamabad's approval.

"They'd be gleefully looking at this as a great opportunity," said Nasim Zehra, an Islamabad-based defence analyst concerned over the prospect for more turmoil in nuclear-armed Pakistan.

If the United States sends troops across the border from Afghanistan, and its alliance with Pakistan is weakened, or, worse still, Pakistani forces try to repel them, who wins?

The answer to many Pakistani analysts is obvious -- al Qaeda, the Taliban and a host of Islamist militant groups who want the United States out of the region and Pakistan in chaos.

A week ago a helicopter-borne raiding party swept into a Pakistani border village and killed 20 people, including women and children. The New York Times reported on Thursday that Bush has given permission to unleash U.S. special forces in Pakistan to eliminate al Qaeda and Taliban targets.

If true, the militants should be worried. The special forces could decimate al Qaeda. They could even kill or catch one of its top leaders, bin Laden or Zawahri.

But the policy could also go horribly wrong. Analysts in Pakistan say it appeared to be a desperate decision by a U.S. president four months away from the end of his term.

"The U.S. homeland, no matter what, is relatively secure after 9/11. It's our homeland that is going to go down the drain," said Zehra, upset at the new government's lack of a coherent policy on internal security to stay America's hand.

FEAR OF ENCIRCLEMENT

There is no official confirmation that Bush has embarked on this course, and the scope of U.S. missions is unknown.

The United States may be hoping covert operations could reap swift rewards. But Pakistan is scared.

The risks are considerable for a new civilian government that just a month ago forced former army chief Pervez Musharraf to relinquish the presidency.

Pakistan's army insists it will protect its borders at all cost. Analysts wonder how it can back words with action given the nation's economic and military dependence on the United States.

"I've yet to see the Pakistan military turn round and say 'thanks but no thanks to your F-16 aircraft, we don't want your weapons'," said defence analyst Ayesha Siddiqa.

But the American lack of sensitivity risks losing an ally, albeit an arguably unreliable one, and could shut down an important source of intelligence.