Bin Laden tape aims to mend Sunni splits in Iraq

By Lin Noueihed - Analysis

DUBAI (Reuters) - Osama bin Laden's call to Iraqi insurgents to unite with his al Qaeda followers is a last-ditch effort to regain the support of Sunni Muslims that has waned as gruesome killings of their countrymen has mounted, analysts say.

Bin Laden's audio message, in which he admits mistakes were made because of fanaticism, came as Iraq's government reported a 70 percent drop in violence since the end of June after a series of U.S.-led offensives against largely Sunni insurgents.

While the Iraq wing of al Qaeda remains at the forefront of many groups fighting U.S. forces and the Shi'ite-led government supported by Washington, its fighters have faced growing opposition in the Sunni areas where they operate.

Angered by months of deadly attacks against Iraqis who fail to follow their hardline interpretations of Islam, Sunni tribes have begun to turn against al Qaeda militants they once backed.

"Osama bin Laden seems through this tape, to see the danger facing al Qaeda in Iraq, this danger that it will weaken if not end," said Abdel Bari Atwan, editor of London-based Arabic newspaper al-Quds al-Arabi and author of a book on al Qaeda.

"It is the first time he has given such a clear message to al Qaeda in Iraq and to Iraqis. He used to leave this to (his deputy) Ayman al-Zawahri, but it he seems to have seen the danger al Qaeda is facing in Iraq and intervened personally."

In Anbar, a former insurgent hotbed, Sunni tribes have joined U.S. forces against al Qaeda. The government says there has been an 82 percent drop in violent deaths.

Videos have appeared on the internet of the execution of Iraqis because they work for the government. Other Sunni insurgent groups in Iraq have distanced themselves from al Qaeda, saying they would continue to fight U.S. troops but were against the killing of Iraqi Shi'ites and other civilians.

CORRECT YOUR WAYS

Al Qaeda follows a school of Islam that regards Iraq's majority Shi'ites as heretics, but bin Laden, whose message appeared on Al Jazeera Television, acknowledged for the first time that some insurgents were involved in "wrongdoings".

He advised supporters not to persecute individuals or groups, urging that those who violate God's law be tried.

"His message was to his group; correct your ways because you face a big problem. Al Qaeda is locked in big disputes with other groups like the Islamic Army in Iraq and that is a problem," said Diaa Rashwan, a Cairo-based expert on Islamists.

"This was the first public criticism by al Qaeda to Iraq's al Qaeda over wrongdoings."

One analyst said bin Laden's message suggests the problems go beyond a souring of ties.

"Did bin Laden conclude that al Qaeda was being pulled out from under his feet in Iraq, that its command was no longer in line with the al Qaeda mother organisation he leads?" said Fares bin Houzam, an independent researcher on al Qaeda.