SCENARIOS: Where does Thailand's crisis head next?

By Ed Cropley and Nopporn Wong-Anan

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's Constitutional Court is expected to meet on Tuesday to decide whether to dissolve the ruling People Power Party (PPP) for vote fraud in a December 2007 election.

All politicians and analysts expect the verdict to go against Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat, plunging the country into a fresh round of chaos and raising the prospect of a violent backlash by government supporters.

The following scenarios, based on comments from analysts, political players and media reports, look at how things might pan out:

CONSTITUTIONAL PARALYSIS

- An adverse court ruling will see Somchai and many cabinet ministers barred from politics for five years.

However, most rank-and-file PPP MPs will escape the ban and simply switch to Puea Thai (For Thailand), a "shell" party already lined up for just such an eventuality.

An election will not necessarily ensue.

As long as the six-party ruling coalition hangs together -- and so far it has shown no signs of cracking -- Puea Thai will have the parliamentary numbers needed to choose a new prime minister and thereby form the next administration.

The only problem will be getting parliament to convene.

It is slated to hold a special session on December 8-9 to approve various international agreements postponed from last week due to a blockade of the building by thousands of People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protesters.

There is no doubt that the PAD, which believes the PPP is simply a front for ousted and exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, will come out in droves to stop the meeting.

If parliament cannot meet, Thailand will be that much closer to constitutional paralysis, without any real government.

Various reports doing the rounds of Bangkok's chattering classes suggest the judiciary will break the deadlock by suspending the constitution and appointing an interim council, mainly of judges, to run the country.

STREET VIOLENCE

- The pro-government Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship (DAAD) has already condemned the above scenario as a "judicial coup," executed "by the gowns, not the tanks," and has promised to mass its supporters near the court in time for the verdict.