SCENARIOS: What to expect from U.S. auto bailout

By Soyoung Kim

DETROIT (Reuters) - Congress and the White House moved closer on Tuesday to a deal that would clear the way for a $15 billion bailout of struggling U.S. automakers.

Discussions are based on the $15 billion rescue package proposed by Democrats, a key provision of which is the creation of an oversight office to be led by a presidentially appointed trustee, or "car czar."

Here's what to expect as lawmakers work toward a vote on the proposed bailout this week.

IF THE BAILOUT PASSES

The loans would support the cash needs of the automakers through the first quarter, sending the companies back to work on more detailed plans that will include a new round of negotiations with the United Auto Workers union.

The car czar would have broad power to monitor progress and could withhold new funding if the automakers lagged.

The automakers would be required to work with the car czar to submit finalized restructuring plans by the end of March. Those plans would have to show that creditors, investors and the union were all making financial concessions.

THE SITUATION AT GM

General Motors Corp has requested $4 billion by the end of December to avoid failure and $12 billion by March.

Even if GM receives a majority of the $15 billion loans, the funds would provide only limited breathing room, and some analysts have said a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing would still be a possibility.

Under proposed rescue package, the government would receive stock warrants for 20 percent of the value of its loan. Those stock warrants could lead to the government owning half of GM, according to Barclays analyst Brian Johnson.

That could make it difficult to offer enough equity to bondholders and the UAW. The UAW is under pressure to take up to $10 billion in stock in the restructured GM in place of half of the funds owed by GM to a retiree health-care trust.

Because the government loans would be senior to all other obligations, GM would have to negotiate new terms on about $6 billion in secured debt.

Under its restructuring plan, GM would shut down at least nine plants and cut another 30,000 workers.

THE SITUATION AT FORD