Cyclone unlikely to spell disaster for Myanmar junta

By Ed Cropley - Analysis

BANGKOK (Reuters) - After 46 years of unbroken military rule, many people both inside and outside Myanmar think it will take an act of God to get rid of the generals.

Inevitably, the former Burma's frustrated exile community are seeing the catastrophic destruction wrought by Cyclone Nargis as just such an event, hoping the economic fallout and misery will spark either a popular uprising or split within the military.

Neither is likely, analysts say.

Many of Myanmar's deeply superstitious 53 million people are likely to blame the storm on "bad karma" from the despotism of junta supremo Than Shwe, Burmese and European analysts said on Thursday.

But those living in the heavily populated Irrawaddy delta will be far too busy in the months ahead rebuilding their lives and homes to worry about rising up.

"People are absolutely preoccupied with survival -- food, water, health, their relatives, getting their jobs back, rebuilding their houses," former Australian ambassador to Yangon Trevor Wilson said.

"Politics is the last thing on their minds at the moment."

With the memories of the bloody suppression of last Septembers' monk-led protests still fresh in people's minds, one taxi driver put it even more succinctly.