Ahmadinejad's opponents scent change in Iran election

By Samia Nakhoul - Analysis

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's opponents are scenting change in Iran's March election for parliament, now dominated by the president's hardline backers, even if they do not expect a sweeping comeback for pro-reform politicians.

TEHRAN, Jan xx (Reuters) - There is a mood of change before Iran's March election for parliament, now dominated by backers of hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, even if no one expects the pro-reform opposition to make a sweeping comeback.

Hardline state bodies, which disqualified most pro-reformers in the 2004 race, have thrown down the gauntlet again, barring hundreds of reformists from running in the March 14 vote seen as a referendum on Ahmadinejad's economic and foreign policies.

Even so, reformists hopes are high they will make modest gains after their 2004 drubbing and that those who back Ahmadinejad will suffer in part because of inflation that has soared into double digits under the president's watch.

Power in Iran ultimately lies with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, so the result will not herald any big shift in foreign or nuclear policy. But it will influence debate and may indicate Ahmadinejad's 2009 re-election prospects.

"It (parliament) will not be dominated by them (hardliners) 100 percent because people are unhappy and unsatisfied with their policies," one pro-reform politician told Reuters.

"People don't want the situation to continue. They will vote for change ... But I am not very sure the Tehran spring will return, maybe that is not possible."

The politician was referring to the era following the election of former President Mohammad Khatami in 1997 that led to an easing in social freedoms and broader public debate.

A driver for change, analysts say, is Ahmadinejad's failure to fully deliver on vows to share Iran's oil wealth more fairly.

The president may have spent Iran's windfall oil earnings with gusto but unemployment is stubbornly high at around 10 percent and inflation has hit 19 percent, hurting the poor the most, the voters he courted in the 2005 presidential race.

POVERTY LINE

His support in outlying provinces, where there has been tangible change from his largesse, may be secure but in cities grumbling about rising rents and food prices grows louder.

"Society in Iran is very sensitive to inflation. For every percentage point of inflation hundreds of thousands fall below the poverty line," analyst Saeed Laylaz told Reuters.

The presidential office dismisses criticism.

"The government will adopt new decisions and I believe this trend (of inflation) will be controlled," said presidential aide Aliakbar Javanfekr. He said he expected a change in parliament's make-up but not a swing back to reformists.