FACTBOX: Iraq, the likely scenarios

(Reuters) - Following are a range of views on what Iraq could look like in the next five years.

JOOST HILTERMANN, DEPUTY PROGRAMME DIRECTOR AT INTERNATIONAL

CRISIS GROUP THINKTANK FOR MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA

"In the worst-case scenario, Iraq would slowly disintegrate into a failed state following a significant drawdown of U.S. troops and fall prey to the ambitions and fears of its neighbors.

"In the best-case scenario, a new U.S. administration would seek and reach some kind of accommodation with Iran, bringing regional tensions down a notch and removing or at least reducing Iran's spoiler role in Iraq. This would open the way toward an accommodation among Iraq's primary political actors. Elections would take place, but real democracy would remain a goal far over the horizon.

"The most likely scenario is one in between: No real accommodation with Iran, but a shared understanding between the U.S. and Iran of their common interests in Iraq; a significant drawdown of U.S. forces, but projection of sufficient military force to prevent the country's total disintegration; no accommodation at the top, but ongoing local conflicts."

STEPHEN BIDDLE, SENIOR FELLOW FOR DEFENCE POLICY AT THE

COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS IN WASHINGTON

"Nothing about Iraq approaches certainty. And the policies of the next (U.S.) Administration are obviously very important.

"But I think there's a decent chance that we could get to something like stability in Iraq over your time frame. It would be a highly imperfect form of stability -- closer to Bosnia than Germany or Japan (after World War Two), with a very weak central government and a very decentralized security solution ... that depends on a continued presence by U.S. peacekeepers to prevent a resumption of violence. But this would be vastly preferable to an also-plausible alternative: a regionwide war if we withdraw too much too soon from an unstable Iraq."

ANTHONY CORDESMAN, IRAQ EXPERT WITH THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC

AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES THINK TANK IN WASHINGTON

"No one can predict where Iraq will be in five years' time and it is almost absurd to try. What one can predict is what it will take to create an Iraq with some degree of security and stability.

"The Iraqis must steadily move towards political accommodation, develop far more effective governance and security forces, use their oil export revenues in ways that serve all of Iraq's people, and use the security forces to bring security to all Iraqis without favoring one ethnicity or sect.

"The U.S. must shape its force reductions to conditions in Iraq, not rush them to suit some timetable dictated by U.S. domestic politics, and must continue to provide advisers and aid until Iraq is ready to stand on its own. All the other scenarios end in failure for Iraq, defeat for the U.S., and far more serious security problems throughout the Gulf."

ADNAN AL-DULAIMI, KEY FIGURE IN IRAQI ACCORDANCE FRONT, MAIN