Election success won't solve Putin's biggest headache

By Michael Stott - Analysis

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Vladimir Putin's resounding endorsement in a parliamentary election will do little to solve his biggest headache - how to manage a difficult handover of power in the Kremlin without triggering open clan warfare.

Official results gave Putin's United Russia party 64 percent of the vote and more than enough seats in parliament to change the constitution.

But until Putin resolves the succession issue, government jubilation at the victory -- one official joked that "this was the result we were promised last Friday" -- is likely to be short-lived.

Competing power groups in the Kremlin, some made up of security service officials, others of a more pro-market bent, are already jockeying for position in the post-Putin era.

Using their control over Russia's huge state-owned corporations, they are eager to claim a share of the country's vast oil and mineral wealth.

Putin now has to attempt an orderly handover of power without disrupting the delicate balance of Kremlin interests.

"This result makes it easier for Putin to go for a third term if he wants to do that," one senior Western diplomat said.

But Putin, in opinion polls Russia's most popular politician, has repeatedly ruled out standing for another consecutive presidential term, citing a constitutional ban which he has promised on numerous occasions not to overturn.

Instead he says he wants to retain influence over the government in some form after leaving the presidency -- a difficult feat to pull off in a country long accustomed to a single powerful master in the Kremlin.

"Putin himself doesn't know what to do with his victory and how to use it," independent political commentator Georgy Bovt said.

"Some say Putin can head the United Russia faction in the Duma. I don't think so because after the presidency, any post would be too small for him".

Investors, already worried about political stability in Russia, are hoping for clarity about the succession in December.

Presidential candidates must register by December 23, meaning Putin has to indicate soon whom he will pick as his successor.

But even that announcement still won't solve the riddle of how Putin will keep a grip on the levers of power from beyond the Kremlin -- and whether he will be successful.

"The strange thing about this result is that it doesn't really change anything," one senior European diplomat said.