Gulf Arabs chart delicate course between Iran and U.S.

By Lin Noueihed - Analysis

DUBAI (Reuters) - President George W. Bush will seek Gulf Arab leaders' support this week to curb Iran, but may find these traditional U.S. allies more wedded to their own diplomatic drive after long frustration with his policies.

Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have watched nearby Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories slip into crisis and Iranian influence spread rather than wane during Bush's seven years in office.

"The royal families in the Gulf are looking at the Bush visit with slightly weary resignation and perhaps a vain hope of making a case that they absolutely need the Palestinian-Israeli peace process to work ... and on the Iran issue," said Gerd Nonneman, Professor of Arab Gulf Studies at Exeter University.

"On the one hand they want a joint diplomatic strategy to avoid a nuclear-armed Iran but also they are saying we think we can engage Iran more effectively. We think we can take the sting out of this by engaging with Iran."

Sunni-ruled Gulf Arab states, including heavyweight Saudi Arabia, have long eyed their large and ambitious Shi'ite neighbor with unease, but have engaged Iran publicly this year.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited Saudi King Abdullah for the first time in March. He became the first Iranian president to be officially invited to the Muslim haj pilgrimage in the Saudi city of Mecca in December.

Earlier that month, Qatar invited Ahmadinejad to a summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). He was the first Iranian leader to attend the Sunni Arab-dominated body, though his comments did not put minds at ease. He also visited Bahrain.

Such high-level engagement raised some eyebrows in Washington; but for Gulf Arab states on Iran's doorstep -- some like the United Arab Emirates with long-established trade ties with the Islamic Republic -- talking makes sense, analysts say.

That Bush visits the Gulf states -- all military, economic and political allies -- for the first time in his last year as president reflects a lack of hands-on engagement, they add.

"There was the perspective that the United States was simply not on top of it, in some cases making things worse or not showing a coherent policy," Nonneman said. "This increased the feeling that they have to get their own act together."

MISSTEPS

Iran's influence in Iraq has grown since the U.S. invasion removed Saddam Hussein and installed a Shi'ite-dominated government in Baghdad, many of whose members have close ties to the Islamic Republic where they lived in exile for years.

Lebanon's infrastructure was hit by the 2006 war with U.S. ally Israel, yet pro-Iranian Hezbollah emerged politically strong. Lebanon has since lurched from one crisis to another as a U.S.-backed cabinet and Iran-backed opposition vie for power.

Gulf states risked public ire by attending the U.S.-sponsored Middle East peace conference at Annapolis only to watch Israeli settlement expansion continue unabated.

To add to the confusion, Bush has refused to rule out the military option to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions, though the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate said the Islamic Republic's atomic weapons program was halted in 2003.