Syria sees isolation fading after Annapolis

By Alistair Lyon, Special Correspondent - Analysis

DAMASCUS (Reuters) - Syria, no longer worried it might be the next U.S. target for regime change after Iraq, is emerging from Western and Arab ostracism without sacrificing its anti-Israeli alliance with Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas.

No one expects a dramatic warming of U.S.-Syrian ties, but Syrian analysts and Western diplomats spoke of modest prospects for constructive engagement after years of mutual mistrust.

"Nothing much has changed yet, but there is more potential than before," said one diplomat, citing last month's U.S.-hosted Israeli-Palestinian talks in Annapolis, which Syria attended.

Just two years ago, Damascus was under fierce U.S. pressure over its role in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestinian territories.

The assassination of Lebanese ex-premier Rafik al-Hariri alienated any remaining Arab or European support for Syria, even though it said it had no hand in the February 2005 killing, and it was forced to end its 29-year military presence in Lebanon.

Since then, U.S. difficulties in Iraq, rising Iranian influence and Israel's failure to crush Hezbollah guerrillas in last year's Lebanon war have helped to restore Syrian fortunes.

"Syria is rising now and the United States is collapsing in the region," said Imad al-Shuaibi, a Syrian political analyst familiar with government thinking. He dismissed the idea that a U.N. tribunal to try Hariri's killers posed any threat to Syria.

ISOLATION CRUMBLING

Signs abound that Damascus's isolation is eroding.

Washington altered its agenda for the November 27 Annapolis talks to secure Syria's presence. Russia plans a follow-up meeting next year to try to revive Syrian-Israeli peacemaking.

French, Italian and Turkish leaders have called President Bashar al-Assad in recent weeks to seek his help in resolving the political crisis over Lebanon's presidential election.

Syria is now looking to improve ties with Saudi Arabia and other U.S.-backed Arab countries before an Arab League summit in Damascus in March, without dropping Iran and its other allies.

"After Annapolis, we hope we are entering a new phase," a European diplomat said. "Syria's overall behavior on Annapolis and Lebanon shows it is trying to reintegrate itself in the Arab family and play things in a way that would benefit the region."

Syria, which demands the return of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights as part of a comprehensive Middle East peace, remains deeply skeptical of U.S. and Israeli intentions.

"Is this a disposable, short-term operation to create more dust than effect?" asked Syrian analyst Samir Altaqi, who heads the Orient Center for Studies in Damascus. "The Syrians won't be bluffed into a public relations exercise."