Lebanon crisis simmers 3 years after Hariri death

By Tom Perry - Analysis

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Three years after Rafik al-Hariri's assassination, the crisis unleashed by his death opens ever deeper rifts in Lebanon and threatens the state and society the leader tried to rebuild after the civil war.

The February 14 anniversary of Hariri's death has become a symbol for divisions between the heirs to his legacy and their opponents, who are waging a political conflict that has paralyzed government and aggravated communal animosities.

The anti-Syrian governing coalition, led by Hariri's son and political heir, Saad, has been fending off a challenge by opposition factions backed by Damascus for 15 months. Their confrontation has already led to lethal street violence.

As mediators struggle to broker an end to the crisis, a recent escalation in the rivals' war of words and regular skirmishes between their supporters have raised fears of more bloodshed, even if many see little scope for full civil war.

"Things are coming to a head. I fear if there's no end to the political deadlock soon, the situation might explode," a senior opposition source told Reuters.

This year, as last, the anniversary of Hariri's death has shown the depth of the divide between the governing coalition and the opposition, which is led by the powerful Shi'ite Muslim group Hezbollah.

In new violence close to the anniversary, senior Hezbollah commander Imad Moughniyah was killed in Damascus on Tuesday by a bomb planted in his car. Hezbollah and its backer Iran blamed Israel, which denied any involvement.

Hariri and his allies have stepped up their verbal campaign against Hezbollah and its opposition allies, accusing them of trying to restore Syrian control of Lebanon. Damascus was forced to end a 29-year military presence in Lebanon by international pressure in the wake of Rafik al-Hariri's killing.

Syria has always denied killing Hariri or any of the several other anti-Syrian figures blown up or shot dead since his death in a truck bombing that also killed 22 other people.

Saad al-Hariri, adopting a bolder approach to a crisis that has left Lebanon without a president since November, last week openly alluded to the prospect of conflict.

BOLDER APPROACH

"If our fate is confrontation, we are for it," said Hariri, who inherited his father's position as the main Sunni Muslim politician in Lebanon -- a country with a sectarian system that links politics and religion.

Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, a Hariri ally, went further by saying war would be "welcome", expressing a readiness for a fight which observers believe both sides want to avoid.

"We do not want a war," Jumblatt later clarified. "I cannot fight them," he said, referring to Hezbollah -- the only faction that kept its weapons after the 1975-90 civil war, using them to battle Israeli forces which occupied the south until 2000.

"But they will not enter my home, I will not permit them. There is a great lie called coexistence," he added, calling for "divorce" with Hezbollah.