Likely consequences of an Irish EU "No"

By Paul Taylor - Analysis

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - First indications from a partial vote count suggest Ireland has voted "No" to the European Union's Lisbon treaty on institutional reform.

Here are some of the likely consequences, according to EU officials and senior diplomats, if that outcome is confirmed in the final result due later on Friday:

* The treaty is very unlikely to come into force as planned on January 1, 2009 since all 27 member states must ratify it. That means the new positions of a long-term president of the European Council of EU leaders and a stronger foreign policy chief with a real diplomatic service will be at least delayed.

* Britain, France and Germany are all expected to declare they will continue the ratification process, as are the Czech Republic, Poland and Sweden, making it likely that all other states will have ratified the treaty by the end of the year. However, Eurosceptics in Britain and elsewhere are bound to step up their campaigning for a referendum or to scrap the treaty.

* EU leaders meeting in Brussels next week are expected to reaffirm their commitment to the treaty and may ask Ireland to indicate how it intends to proceed. That would put the onus on Dublin either to seek changes, opt-outs or assurances and put them to a second referendum, or to find a way to allow the others to proceed with the key reforms without Ireland.

* The outcome seems certain to spark new questions about the EU's public legitimacy, given a spate of referendum losses this decade in Denmark, Sweden, Ireland, France and the Netherlands.

* The EU is likely to be weakened internationally, notably in its dealings with powers such as Russia and Iran, by having to limp on, at least for a longer period, with dysfunctional foreign policy and defense institutions and a rotating presidency widely seen as a source of inefficiency.

(reporting by Paul Taylor, editing by Janet McBride)