Tsvangirai's risky gamble needs regional backing

By Cris Chinaka - Analysis

HARARE (Reuters) - Zimbabwe's Morgan Tsvangirai has gambled his political career by pulling out of an election run-off and he must now count on regional action as well as sympathy to have a hope of unseating President Robert Mugabe.

In a free election, the opposition leader would have been well placed to win next Friday's vote after beating Mugabe in the first round, but he announced on Sunday that political violence made a fair ballot impossible.

The announcement was hedged though -- with a plea to Africa and the world to intervene in the crisis. He also spoke of the need to work on a transition of power away from Mugabe, who has ruled since 1980, suggesting a readiness for negotiations.

"It is a bold statement, but he does appear to be leaving his options open. This sounds like a provisional pull-out," said Brian Raftopolous, a political analyst with the Zimbabwe Institute.

Tsvangirai, a fiery 56-year-old former trade unionist, always knew the run-off would be difficult and only reluctantly agreed to take part.

His Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) said he won the outright majority needed on March 29 to avoid a second round of voting, but agreed to go along to avoid granting automatic victory to Mugabe, 84.

At first sight, giving up now would have the same result.

But the picture has changed.